First AMPS out since move to DS-CAPI

According to the statement from SAARF, while print users can now compare current with previous readership figures, there will be little for them to evaluate. Overall, it says, print readership remained stable, with both total newspaper and magazine readership unchanged. Very few publications showed any significant change in their readership figures. Across both print sectors, only 22 titles registered any real change, and of these, only five were positive movements.

While print consumption remained stable, the incidence of both television viewing and radio listening increased, as did access to the Internet. Exposure to out-of-home declined in general, while cinema attendance was stable.

Media aside, another significant change to AMPS June 10 is the introduction of the new 2010 population estimates produced by the Bureau of Market Research (BMR). This estimate has substantially changed the makeup and size of the SA population projection, says SAARF, although users can still compare the current survey with the previous.

Technical information

• SAARF AMPS June 10 covers the period of July 2009 to June 2010.
  
• All fieldwork was conducted using the DS-CAPI methodology.
  
• Sample size: 25 170
  
• This report compares data from two AMPS releases:

  • the current release, SAARF AMPS June 10 (July 2009 to June 2010), with a 15+ universe.

  • the previous release, SAARF AMPS December 2009 (Jan-Dec 2009), with a 15+ universe.

Universe

UNISA's BMR recently released new population estimates for 2010. In the absence of current census data, SAARF points out that all its media research must instead rely on population estimates. Almost 10 years have elapsed since the last national census, and results from the upcoming 2011 census are only expected around 2014.

It is therefore necessary, continues SAARF, to make projections on the growth of the South African population, based on various sources, so that the SAARF research products can remain up-to-date.

The AMPS Jun 10 universe has been updated to reflect BMR's new estimates for the 15+ population: 34,020 million adults, which is an increase of 1,522 million (up 4.7%).

Users should be aware of the following significant changes to the population profile:

• A decline in the male population.
  
• An increase in the female population.
  
• An increase in the population of the North West.
  
• A decline in the population of both the Northern and Eastern Cape.

BMR believes there are a number of reasons behind the marked difference between its earlier estimates and the new 2010 estimate.

• BMR has adjusted for what it believes were previous overestimations of Aids-related mortality in some provinces.
  
• It has adjusted too for an apparent overestimation of net migration in certain provinces and an underestimation in others.

Below is a breakdown of the 15+ population, based on the BMR 2010 population estimate.

Demographic data

Only statistically significant differences are quoted, and are based on percentages, not on number of people.

LSMs

The LSMs of AMPS Jun 10 are comparable to AMPS December 09, with only one significant shift - LSM 2 has declined from 7.5% to 6.5%, particularly in metros, Limpopo, the female demographic and the 15-24 age group.

Household income

Several household income groups have shown significant changes over AMPS December 09.

Average household income now stands at R7 473.00 per month, an increase of 2.4% (up from R7 295.00 in AMPS December 09). The six-month change is slightly behind inflation, at 6.2% (Jan 2010).

Employment status

• Working full-time: declined from 26.7% over the previous survey, to 25.5% currently, with losses in metros, the Free State and Gauteng, and in the 50+ age group.
  
• Working part-time: stable at 8.6%.
  
• Not working: up significantly from 64.3% to 65.9%, with metros, the Northern Cape, Gauteng and the 50+ age group having increased numbers of people who claim the status of "not working".

Education levels

There has been no change in the literacy rate, which remains at 96.5%.

Schooling levels have also remained stable, although there has been in increase in the percentage of adults holding a matric certificate - up from 29.8% in AMPS December 2009 to 31.1% currently. These improvements have occurred in Gauteng and among 15-24-year-olds.

Household data

The household weighting procedure is identical to that used in the previous two AMPS releases. Household results are therefore comparable across these releases.

The household population stands at 13.369 million, an increase of 7.1% or 885 000. This increase is a result of the new 2010 BMR population estimates, as discussed above.

The SAARF TAMS household universe also increases significantly, rising from 9.708 million (77.8%) to 10.583 million (79.2%).

Access to services

Services have remained stable over the previous AMPS release. The only changes seen were a significant decline in the incidence of flush toilets, and a significant increase in access to cellphones.

Durables and entertainment in the home

• Microwave ovens: Up from 51.6% in the previous survey to 53% in AMPS Jun 10. These increases came through from metros, in the Western Cape, the Free State and Gauteng and among 25-34-year-olds.
  
• Refrigerators: Up from 76.6% to 78.6% (in metros and rural areas, the Western Cape, Free State, Limpopo, 15-34 and 50+).
  
• VCRs: Down from 15.7% to 13.6%, with losses in metros, the Western Cape, Mpumalanga, Limpopo, and in the 15-49 bracket.
  
• DVD players: Up from 53.6% to 56.1% (in metros and rural areas, the Western Cape, Limpopo, Gauteng, and the 35+ age group).

Media audience results

This report compares data from two AMPS releases:

• the current release, SAARF AMPS Jun 10 (July 2009 to June 2010), with a 15+ universe.
  
• the previous release, SAARF AMPS December 09 (Jan-Dec 2009), with a 15+ universe.

Only statistically significant differences are quoted, and are based on percentages, not on number of people.

Print

With AMPS Jun3 2010, the industry now has access to the first totally comparable DS-CAPI readership results. As the second, full, 12-month DS-CAPI survey, this survey marks the new trend line for print.

Overall, the print medium has remained stable. Total print readership is set at 64.1%, with 21,799 million readers. While up slightly from AMPS December 09's 63.1%, this upward trend is not statistically significant.

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Newspapers

Newspaper readership remains unchanged. While there has been growth of the overall newspaper audience in Limpopo, there was no other movement in the sector as a whole. Average issue readership (AIR) is 16.206 million, giving newspapers a reach of 47.6%.

• Any daily newspaper: Stable with a 29.2% reach and an AIR of 9,941 million.
  
• Any weekly newspaper: Reach has remained stable at 34.2% with an AIR of 11,637 million. There were downward readership shifts in Pretoria.

• Any monthly newspaper: Stable at 0.7% with an AIR of 237 000.

Only eight titles across the total newspaper sector saw any change in their readership, with only one of these achieving growth. Of the rest which saw their AIRs declining, half of these were weekend titles.

The rising Son

Son was the only newspaper title to show growth over AMPS December 2009. With its AIR increasing from 2.4% to 2.9%, the paper now has an audience of 984 000, compared to a total of 776 000 previously. This growth was thanks primarily to readership gains in metros, the Eastern Cape, particularly Port Elizabeth/Uitenhage, gains in the male market and in the 35-49 age bracket.

Seven other newspapers showed significant downward shifts in their readership figures.

• The Star's AIR is down from 2.1% to 1.7% (with a total readership in total of 561 000). Losses were seen among males and those aged 34-49.
  
• Readership of the Saturday edition of the Citizen is down to 331 000, from 1.3% to 1.0%. These declines came primarily from metros and the 50+ group.
  Saturday Star's readership is down from 1.5% to 1.1% (361 000 readers), with declines in Gauteng, on the Reef, and among the 35+ and male demographics.
  Sunday Times' reach is down from 13.0% to 12.0% (4.085 million readers), with fewer readers aged 50+, and fewer Pretoria-based readers.
  
• Sunday Tribune's AIR is down from 2.3% to 1.9%. Readership is 657 000.
  
• Sunday World's 1.738 million audience is down over the previous AMPS survey. AIR went from 5.8% to 5.1%, with declines in the Free State, among males and in the 35+ bracket.
  
• The monthly newspaper title, Bignews, saw its reach decline from 0.2% to 0.1% (48 000 readers).

Magazines

Like newspapers, magazine readership has levelled off. The increased levels enjoyed by the medium over the last two AMPS releases, when the introduction of DS-CAPI resulted in a significantly higher measure for the sector, have now stabilised.

Total magazine readership is stable at 49.8%, with a total readership of 16,937 million. Upward shifts took place in Limpopo.

The only category to show significant change was that of fortnightly titles, which dropped from 14.9% to 13.7%, with a readership of 4,663 million.

The AIRs for the other magazine categories are:

• Any weekly: 26.6%, 9.060 million readers, with gains in Limpopo;
  
• Any monthly: 36.7%, 12.502 million readers;
  
• Any alternate monthly: 11.4%, 3.890 million readers;
  
• Any quarterly: 2.7%, 931 000 readers; and
  
• Any subscriber magazine: 10.0%, 3.389 million readers.

At the level of individual titles, there was more movement in the magazine category than in newspapers. Four titles improved their AIRs. A further 10 titles saw their audiences decline, though not enough in total to affect the medium itself.

Magazine movers

Drum grew its AIR significantly from 7.1% to 7.9%, with a total audience of 2.673 million readers. Growth occurred in metros, Gauteng and on the Reef, and among 25-34-year-olds.

Also on the rise was Dish/Skottel, which now has a readership of 2.262 million, up from 1.798 million in the previous release. The title's AIR is now 6.6%, up from 5.5% previously. This growth came through from several areas: metros, the Eastern Cape and Gauteng, Port Elizabeth/Uitenhage, East London, Durban and Johannesburg, as well as the 15-34 age group.

You Pulse/HuisgenootPols saw its readership rise from 0.4% to 0.7%, with a total readership of 246 000. Upward audience shifts occurred in Gauteng, among males and 15-34 year olds.

Finally, alternate monthly Vuk'uzenzele rounds off the group of four titles showing growth. The publication now has 1,455 million readers and a reach of 4.3%, up from 3.6% previously. Demographic shifts occurred in the Free State, in East London, and among males and 35-49-year-olds.

Ten more magazine titles showed significant readership shifts over the previous AMPS release.

• Despite the build-up to the 2010 FIFA World Cup, soccer titles Kickoff, Amakhosi and Soccer Life (Four Four Two) saw declines in their readership over AMPS December 2009.

  • Kickoff's AIR fell from 9.6% to 8.6%, with losses in the 50+ group.
    
  • Readership of Amakhosi dropped from 6.0% to 5.3%, with declines in metros, in the Free State and Gauteng, and among females and those aged 35-49.
    
  • Soccer Life (Four Four Two) lost readers aged 35-49, bringing its AIR to 2.3% from 2.7%.

• Entrepreneur's AIR declined from 0.6% to 0.4%.
  
• Food & Home Entertaining lost readers across a number of demographics: metros, the Western Cape, Cape Town, females and 50+. Its AIR is 1.7%, down from 2.1%.
  
• Living and Loving is down from 2.0% to 1.6%, with fewer male and readers aged 50+.
  
• National Geographic's readership is down from 1.6% to 1.3%. Downward shifts took place in metros and among male and readers aged 50+.
  
• SA Home Owner lost readers in metros, Gauteng, the male market and in the 50+ age bracket. Its AIR fell from 0.9% to 0.6% over the previous AMPS release.
  
• Wine magazine lost female readers, pulling down its AIR from 0.5% to 0.3%.
  
• Personal Finance lost male readers and readers in metros. Its AIR declined from 0.8% to 0.5% over the previous period

Television

(SAARF TAMS is the official currency for the television industry.)

They might not be reading more, but South African adults are certainly watching more television. The 2010 FIFA World Cup would certainly have contributed here, with fieldwork covering the first two weeks of this event.

Total television viewing over a seven-day period is significantly up compared to AMPS December 2009 - from 85.5% previously to 86.8% currently. This increased TV universe is now 29.519 million strong, with gains occurring in metros, Limpopo and Gauteng, on the Reef, among males and 15-34 year olds.

Following are the weekly viewing figures for the country's TV channels:

• SABC1: Up significantly from 74.5% in the previous survey to 75.6%, with 25 728 million viewers currently. Gains were seen in metros, Limpopo, Gauteng and Soweto.
  
• SABC2: Also up significantly, from 64.7% previously to 66.1%. The channel's audience is 22.475 million, augmented primarily by gains in metros, Gauteng, East London and the Reef, and male viewers.
  
• SABC3: Stable at 53.5%, with 18.185 million viewers. The station experienced upward demographic shifts in Mpumalanga, the North West and the Reef.
  
• e.tv: SA's free-to-air station is up significantly, growing from 62.8% to 65.4%, with an audience of 22.244 million. Growth occurred in metros, in the Free State and Gauteng, on the Reef, and in the 15-24 and 50+ age groups.
  
• M-Net main service: Stable at 7.0% (2.389 million viewers) but with gains in its East London and Johannesburg audiences.
  
• Total DSTV excluding terrestrial channels: Stable at 19.3%, with 6.556 million viewers. The platform did, however, lose viewers in the Western Cape and Cape Town.
  
• Total community TV: Stable at 1.433 million viewers, or 4.2% of total adults. Viewing of community TV has grown in the Vaal, but is down in the Western Cape and Cape Town in particular, and among 35+ year old viewers.

Radio

(SAARF RAMS is the official currency for the radio industry.)

Like television, radio listening is up in total. Total radio listenership over a weekly period rose from 89.3% to 90.5%, with gains in Limpopo, the Vaal and among those aged 50+. The medium now reaches 30.795 million adults.

Radio's growth has come from the commercial and PBS radio sector, which showed increased listenership figures in total. These stations now reach 87.7% of South African adults, up from 86.7%. Growth occurred in Limpopo, the Vaal, among females and those aged 50+.

Total community radio remained stable with 24.1% listenership (8,204 million listeners, with more Bloemfontein listeners over the previous survey.)

Out of home

(SAARF OHMS is the official currency for the out-of-home industry.)

AMPS June 10 shows that in total, people's exposure to out-of-home media has declined over the previous survey.

Across an average week, exposure to all types of out-of-home media declined from 93.8% previously to 92.6%, with significant declines seen in settlements and rural areas, and in the Eastern Cape.

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Individual out-of-home channels which showed significant changes over AMPS December 2009 were:

• Billboards: Across the week, exposure is down from 72.4% to 70.4%, with losses in settlements and rural areas and the Northern and Eastern Cape.
  
• Bus shelters: Down from 44.5% to 41.9% (past 7 days), with downward movement in metros as well as settlements and rural areas, in Limpopo and Gauteng. Exposure to bus shelters was up however in the Western Cape.
  
• Stores: Down from 81.6% to 80.1% (past 7 days), with declines in several demographics -settlements and rural areas, the Northern and Eastern Cape, the Free State and Limpopo.
  
• Buses: Weekly exposure to bus advertising is down from 45.7% to 44.4%. Increased exposure in the Western and Northern Cape was not enough to offset losses in Mpumalanga and Limpopo.
  
• Trailer ads: Down from 40.8% to 39.3% (past 7 days). Declines were seen in metros and the Eastern Cape.

Cinema

Cinema attendance is stable in total, with no demographic shifts.

• 5.7% of adults aged 15+ go to the cinema over a four-week period (1,922 million people). This rate is unchanged over the previous survey.
  
• Attendance up to three months is stable at 10.2%, with 3,464 million patrons.
  
• Over a 12-month period, 6,474 million adults go to the movies - this is 19.0% of the adult population.

Internet

Access to the Internet has grown significantly over the previous AMPS release, across all time filters, and driven by greater connectivity in the 15-34 market.

• Yesterday: Up from 6.8% to 7.7% (2,623 million people), with growth in metros. More males, and more adults aged 15-24 had access.
  
• Past 7 days: Access is up from 9.8% to 11.1% (3,769 million), particularly in metros, on the Vaal, and in the 15-34 age group.
  
• Past 4 weeks: Up from 11.7% to 13.4% (4,557 million), especially in metros, as well as in Gauteng and among those aged 15-34.
  
• Past 12 months: Internet access on a yearly basis rose from 13.4% to 15.6% (5,296 million). Access increased particularly in metros, in the Western Cape, Free State and Gauteng, and among the 15-34 age group.

Fo more, go to www.saarf.co.za.