Crime still on the increase according to the SAARF Crime Monitor
South Africans are feeling no safer this year than they did in 2003, as more people have informed the SAARF Crime Monitor that they've fallen foul of criminals in the past 12 months. While recently released national crime statistics show an 8% decline in the country's murder rate research by the South African Advertising Research Foundation reveals increased numbers of people were victims of crime in the 12 months to June 2004, compared to January to December 2003.
As part of its All Media and Products Survey (AMPS®), which makes use of a large representative sample of 24 489, SAARF questions South Africans on their experience of crime over a 12 month period.
People aged 16 years and older were asked whether they had personally been a victim of crime in South Africa, either non-lethal violent crime such as physical assault, mugging, gang attack, rape or hijacking; or non-violent crime such as housebreaking, pick-pocketing, and car or cellphone theft. Murder is obviously excluded from the AMPS® survey, since people are asked what crimes they have personally fallen victim to. Any crimes against children, such as child abuse, are also not included in SAARF Crime Monitor, as the study focuses on people aged 16 years and older.
Unlike the national crime statistics, SAARF's Crime Monitor investigates what people say they have experienced in terms of crime - whether or not they have reported these incidents to the police.
Looking at the period of January to December 2003, versus July 2003 to June 2004, Crime Monitor shows that crime is very definitely still on the increase. Non-lethal violent crime (excluding murder) affected almost 300 000 more South Africans in the current survey period than in 2003. Almost 80 in 1000 adults - or 2.389 million people - fell prey to violence such as physical assault, mugging, gang attacks, rape or hijacking, compared to 70 in 1000 in 2003.
Almost 400 000 more South Africans (140 out of 1000 adults) were victims of non-violent crime in the 12 months to June 2004. In 2003, this figure was 129 in 1000 people. The 3.845 million non-violent crime victims of 2003 have grown to 4.237 million in the year to June 2004, or 14% of all adults aged 16 and older.
With a one in seven chance of becoming a victim of non-violent crime, and a one in 13 chance of getting caught up in violent crime, avoiding becoming a statistic in South Africa is no easy task, especially for certain groups:
Gender: Men bear the brunt
Women are relatively safer than men, experiencing lower than average crime, both violent and non-violent. Sixty-four out of every 1000 women reported being the victims of non-lethal violent crime, compared to 94 out of 1000 men. Indeed, men are almost 40% more likely than women to be caught up in violence. Violent crime against women however, is increasing - today's figure of 64 out of 1000 has grown from 52 out of 1000 women in 2003.
Age groups: Young adults are experiencing more crime
Young adults are increasingly finding themselves victims of violent crime. In 2003, it was the 25-34 year age group which had the highest incidence of violent crime. Now, it is those aged 16-24 who are more likely to be targets - 16% more likely, in fact, than average. Ninety-two out of every 1000 adults aged 16-24 years reported experiencing violent crime in the year to June 2004, which is above the national average for violent crime of 79 in 1000 people. That is 14 more people per 1000 than in 2003. Non-violent crime is also up in this age group, with 151 in 1000 young adults, or 1.214-million people, being affected (compared to 129 in 1000 in 2003).
Raised crime levels are the norm for all age groups, however. Even those aged older than 50, the only group to experience decidedly below average levels of crime, were harder hit in the year to June 2004 than in 2003 - from 36 to 55 in 1000 non-lethal violent crime victims, and from 100 to 112 in 1000 non-violent crime victims.
Population groups: all are at risk
When it comes to non-violent crimes like housebreaking, pick-pocketing, and car or cell-phone theft, the white population is 60% more likely to be at the receiving end than average. 226 out of 1000 whites, compared to 128 out of 1000 blacks, 146 out of 1000 Indians, and 110 out of 1000 coloureds, reported to SAARF that they were victims of non-violent crime in the 12 months to June 2004.
In terms of non-lethal violent crime however, it is the black population which continues to experience an above-average crime rate. Black people are 7% more likely than average to become victims of violent crime, a rate which has unfortunately increased slightly over 2003. Eighty-four out of 1 000 blacks said they had fallen prey to violent crime (up from 74 in 1 000 in 2003). Indians follow at 78 in 1 000 (up from 69), coloured people at 63 in 1 000 (up from 52), and 59 out of 1 000 whites (down slightly from 64 out of 1000 in 2003).
Household income groups: 'Haves' are the targets
The relationship between the incidence of non-violent crime and household income is clear - those at the bottom end of the income scale (less than R500 a month) have the lowest incidence of non-violent crime, with 96 out of 1000 people (down from 109 in 2003). Incidence then rises steadily to a high of 231 out of 1000 people earning over R12 000 a month, which is well over the national average of 140 per 1000. Small comfort for those in this top income bracket however, is that incidence is slightly down over 2003, when it stood at 243 out of 1000 people.
Provincial breakdown of violent crime
As a South African, you have a one in 13 chance of falling prey to criminals with a violent bent. If those odds are too high for comfort, then KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Gauteng are not the provinces for you. People from these three provinces have been subjected to an above-average rate of violent crime in the year to June 2004. In KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, you have a one in 10 chance of experiencing some form of violent crime (101 out of every 1000 people), and in Gauteng, a one in 11 chance (or 91 out of 1000 people).
In KwaZulu-Natal, Durban experiences an even higher rate of violent crime, where 111 out of every 1000 Durbanites were affected by violent crime in the year to June 2004. Some 90kms away, 91 out of 1000 people in Pietermaritzburg experienced non-lethal violent crime, less than Durban but nonetheless still above the national average of 79 out of 1 000.
Soweto remains a hotspot in Gauteng. Residents experienced a rate of violent crime almost two times higher than the national average, with 135 out of 1000 people reporting to SAARF that they had been victims of some form of violent crime. This figure is up from 112 out of 1000 people in 2003. Vaal and Greater Johannesburg also show above-average levels of violent crime - 113 and 111 people out of 1000, respectively.
By comparison, the other provinces experienced a below-average number of violent crime incidents in relation to their population sizes:
All provinces, bar Gauteng which saw a 3% decline in its violent crime rate, have experienced more violent crime in the 12 months to June 2004, than in 2003:
| Jan-Dec 2003 (people out of 1000) | July03-June04 (people out of 1000) | % increase | |
| Northern Cape | 41 | 61 | 49% |
| Eastern Cape | 50 | 66 | 32% |
| Limpopo | 54 | 69 | 28% |
| KwaZulu-Natal | 86 | 101 | 17% |
| Mpumalanga | 90 | 101 | 12% |
| North-West | 54 | 60 | 11% |
| Free State | 52 | 57 | 10% |
| Western Cape | 56 | 60 | 7% |
| Gauteng | 94 | 91 | -3% |
National crime statistics and the data from SAARF's Crime Monitor are not comparable, which is evident when comparing some aspects of the findings. For instance, the Sunday Times reported that according to national crime statistics, the Northern Cape had the highest rate of serious assault, rape, attempted murder, child abuse, and aggravated robbery (Sunday Times, 26 September, 2004). Crime Monitor however, shows that in relation to provinces such as KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and Mpumalanga, the Northern Cape is relatively safe, although it has shown a 49% increase in violent crime over 2003, the highest increase in the country.
A number of factors could account for this. SAARF only measures the responses of those aged 16 and older, while the national crime statistics cover all South Africans. Child abuse and any crime touching children is therefore not measured by Crime Monitor, which would impact on final crime rates compared to the national statistics.
Crime Monitor also casts a wider net than the national crime statistics in that people need not have reported the crime to authorities for the SAARF survey to record them as crime victims. This could mean a higher rate of crime being measured by Crime Monitor versus the national crime statistics, especially in those provinces where high crime rates might make people feel that reporting incidents won't make a difference, and so do not bother to bring in the police.
"While Crime Monitor does not give final figures for various crimes committed, it does very clearly show how South Africans are feeling the effects of crime in their lives," says Dr Paul Haupt, CEO of SAARF.
Provincial breakdown of non-violent crime
Nationally, South Africans have a one in seven chance of becoming a victim of non-violent crime. In Gauteng, Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape however, these odds become worse, as non-violent crime in these provinces exceeds the average crime rate.
Gauteng is well above average, with its 1.030-million non-violent crime victims accounting for 24.3% of all those affected by this type of crime. 170 out of every 1000 Gautengers were victims in the 12 months to June 2004, up from 162 in 2003.
KwaZulu-Natal follows, where 151 out of 1 000 people will experience crime such as housebreaking and theft. In 2003, this figure was 136 people out of 1000.
Limpopo has 147 out of every 1000 (up from 135), and the Western Cape has 145 people out of every 1000 (up from 143), saying they experienced non-violent crime in the year to June 2004.
The other five provinces are relatively safer in terms of the number of residents being victims of non-violent crime, which are all below the national average of 140 out of 1000 people.
Northern Cape, Free State and the Eastern Cape are well below average when it comes to non-violent crime, although all three nonetheless have higher levels than in 2003. The Northern Cape, which accounts for 1.3% of all non-violent crime in the country, has 87 out of 1000 people reporting being victims (up from 83 in 2003). In the Free State, 105 out of every 1000 people were victims (up from 94), and in the Eastern Cape, 106 out of 1000 were affected (up from 95).
Mpumalanga continues to hover just below average, with 138 out of 1000 people claiming to have been victims of non-violent crime. North-West has a rate of 126 out of every 1000 adults.
* SAARF will update figures in August 2005.
