On 1 July AMPS 08a universes will be applied to existing TAMS data, and the variables of the Random Iterative Method (RIM) weighting methodology will change, with the collapse of the M-Net and DStv variables into a single Pay RIM, while Compact viewing's representation in the universe and sample will be corrected.
The new universes will take into account the tremendous growth in the number of DStv subscribers, particularly Compact households. There will be a 37% growth in the number of DStv households reflected on the TAMS panel. As a result, channel audiences as measured in 000s will increase on average by 30%. All channels show growth in 000s as result of the expanding subscriber base; however, popular Compact channels, such as Africa Magic, will show a 46% increase.
Oracle Airtime Sales (OATS) explains that these changes will impact on both M-Net- and DStv-buying target markets, particularly the media planning for July and August. The media planning industry, however, looks at audiences in terms of ratings (their percentage reach against a defined market) and it expects the impact on ratings to paint a different picture.
Most significantly, any upper-income or upper-LSM target market will show a decline in M-Net viewing due to the downward adjustments to the base of the number of analogue-only homes. M-Net high-income and LSM 8-10 ARs will show declines of an average 13%-source period-dependent).
“Therefore, we recommend the industry plans M-Net using break ratings and if the most recent six-week source period is used we recommend a down-weight of 22% to take into account the April holiday periods and IPL cricket. Over and above this the normal adjustments should be made for any programme changes,” says Brenda Wortley, OATS Head of Research and Strategy.
In terms of DStv, (measured against DStv adults), the growing Compact base has had a positive influence on those channels that are available on Compact. The changing profile of the base requires understanding as the impact on audiences will vary, by channel, depending on their availability on the Compact or Premium bouquets. “It's recommended that the industry plans DStv using break ratings and applies a 10% down-weight to ratings,” says Wortley. “Ratings will still vary at a spot-by-spot level, so overall campaign performance should be used to judge performance. As recommended for M-Net, the most recent six-week source period should be used and adjustments made for programme changes.”
OATS anticipated the pending universe changes and has taken this into account for the July and August rates-setting process, explains Wortley. “No further adjustment in rates or discounts is planned.” However, now that we know the full impact we will take the detail into account in our September rate-setting process.
