South African jobs data 1Q12

10 May 2012

According to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey among households published by Stats South Africa, formal employment was up by 290 000 in 1Q12 compared to a year ago, rising from 9.2 million in 1Q2011 to 9.6 million in 4Q2011 and now dropping to 9.5 million in 1Q12. This gain was considerably less than the impression gained from the previous survey.

Importantly, though, the gain over 1Q2011 remains more than twice as high as being reported by a quarterly survey of employers (+130 000 on a year ago).

This latter estimate remains a more credible number, given the state of the economy and labour market, especially the high rate of average wage gains in many sectors in recent years.

Informal employment stubbornly stuck

Informal employment has been stubbornly stuck at a very precise 3.9 million this past year, raising the question as to whether this labour activity is precisely estimated (and whether some of the formal job activity per this household survey is perhaps overstated of late).

Unemployment rose steeply in 1Q12, by 282 000 since 4Q2011 and by 162 000 since a year ago.

If we add the increase in discouraged work seekers over this period, some +20 000 since 4Q2011 and +112 000 since 1Q2011, the overall picture is far from encouraging.

For whereas overall employment increased in 1Q12, by +76 000 since 4Q11 and by +303 000 since a year ago, the all-inclusive unemployment number (combining unemployed and discouraged) increased also heavily in 1Q12, by +302 000 since 4Q2011 and by +274 000 since 1Q2011.

Thus, we are told that the official unemployment rate in 1Q12 rose to 25.2 percent compared to 25 percent in 1Q2011 and 23.9 percent in 4Q2011.

But the inclusive unemployment rate (which includes unemployed and discouraged work seekers) stayed the same at 30.5 percent in 1Q12.

By sector, the main negative contributions were reportedly in manufacturing -81 000 y/y and in construction -45 000.

Positive contributions

The main positive contributions were in finance and business services +110 000 y/y, government +63 000, trades +95 000, transport +56 000, agriculture +53 000 and other +50 000.

By profession, managers were reportedly -34 000 y/y and skilled workers -61 000.

In contrast, elementary workers were reportedly +162 000, clerks +78 000, technicians +71 000, sales and services + 65 000, domestics +19 000.

This represents fascinating data, considering the reported shrinkage at the top and middle of the skill distribution, the substantial expansion at the bottom, and 85 percent of this apparently occurring in the private sector at a time of rapidly increasing wage bills and greater use of advanced cost-saving technology in the economy.