'Retail gloom weighs on business confidence'

The RMB/BER business confidence index (BCI) declined by a further three points to 23 in the third quarter, against Mercier's expectations of a six-point increase.

"The further decline in the BCI does not necessarily undermine the outlook for a near-term upturn in the SA economy - especially as the more cyclical sectors (manufacturing, motor trade) have seen a bounce in sentiment.

It suggests, though, that weak consumer demand will keep the eventual recovery in check," says the economist.

"We do not think that the renewed drop in the BCI will prompt an additional rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), even though the market is probably right (for now) to attach at least some probability to the event.

It reinforces our view, though, that the SARB probably will not have to hike rates for a prolonged period," concludes Mercier.

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