These figures are estimates based partly on the success of the Confederations Cup but largely on consumer behaviour patterns in various countries.
A common denominator in these patterns, regardless of the country, is the current capacity of consumers to blank out negative elements in favour of self-fulfilment. An additional factor is the perception of issues such as crime, rather than the reality.
No consumers, not even those in the safest and most crime-free countries, are spared the horrors of the current high level of global violence. Real-time TV broadcasts and the increase in citizen journalism, via Twitter and other social networking sites, are bringing more violence to the global media audience. Somehow world consumers are seeing crime and violence as one and the same thing.
So, while South Africa's crime levels might well be higher than most other countries, global consumers contextualise this with ongoing political violence in places such as Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq.
Looking at global business and tourism trends, crime seems to be less of an issue than things like swine flu and natural disasters such as tsunamis and earthquakes. And if swine flu is more of an issue than crime, it is interesting to see that many tourists are taking advantage of cut-price travel to Mexico in spite of the risk of the pandemic. A classic case of personal fulfilment overriding the possibility of personal risk.
Hopefully, South Africa will not try and take solace from the fact that consumers the world over are becoming so accustomed to crime that they don't let it influence them as much as it did 10 years ago. It is vital to the marketing of Brand South Africa that the levels of crime are significantly reduced because the whole point of 2010 is the benefit it will have to for this country for decades beyond that date.
So, while crime might not be the massive deterrent relative to the 2010 World Cup, it could well become that in the future and unless this country brings the crime rate down, it will be left in the lurch as a no-go tourism and investment zone.
Looking at global consumer behavioural trends, there is no doubt that what has been the biggest single factor in terms of getting the world excited about 2010 and South Africa is what happened in the stadia during the Confed Cup.
If one looks at world news media consumption compared to football media consumption, it becomes clear that far more football fans were actually watching the games on TV than news items about South Africa.
And what they would have seen these past two weeks would have been stadia that looked good, pitches that at least the TV cameras made look good, even if the Brazilians didn't much like them, and some very enthusiastic and lively South African fans. Best of all, they saw some very exciting football. Not least of all from a brave Bafana Bafana who sent a message around the world that we were not only capable of organising global soccer events but playing a darn good game.
Undoubtedly, SA will have to look closely at those areas, such as transport, park-and-ride, accommodation and crime, that FIFA has pointed out.
All the indications are that, with very few exceptions, football fans from all over the world will be happy to come to SA next year, as will the competing teams. A combination of the Confed Cup and current global consumer behaviour trends has pretty much guaranteed it.
But, a successful 2010 FIFA World Cup for SA is not just about pride and being able to say ja, sucks, boo to those detractors who said we couldn't do it, but it will determine the success or failure of foreign investment and tourism to this country for decades to come.
Right now though, we have to bear in mind that, thanks to current consumer trends, we are literally getting away with murder. And that it might not be that way for long.
