[2009 trends] Changing shopper habits in 2009

We will see more consumer-coping strategies to deal with the downturn. People are increasingly savouring brand and life experiences, rather than just blindly buying and spending. Many will also evaluate their career decisions, as increasing numbers of jobs are in peril or already lost.

Authenticity will become paramount for brands as they look to regain credibility and trust. People are thinking less about "me" and more about what "we" can do collectively, to address the challenges of modern society. Furthermore, technological advancements are catapulting the mobile phone to the prime position of what we call the "everything hub".

While these trends are not directly media, marketing or advertising industry trends, they do offer some insights into what may happen in 2009 in our industry.

Shopper habits change

As South Africans feel the pinch of the economic downturn, they are likely to change the way they shop. This could see them trading down in some categories as they search for value, and moving into new categories as they look for ways to enjoy small pleasures and affordable rewards. Good news for both house brands and take-home ice cream manufacturers.

We have all heard the numbers: 70% of decisions are made at the shop shelf. Increasingly, SA marketers are considering, if not embracing, shopper marketing. This will see 2009 having an additional focus on the shopper - as opposed to the consumer - by many local marketers as they work harder and harder to drive sales in tough economic times.

This trend will manifest in a shift in budgets towards visibility and other in-store activities, as well as a quest to understand the shopper better. Shopper marketing activities will be accompanied by "good, old-fashioned" value offers a la Woolworths' "Feed a family of four for under R100" or promotions with instant prizes, eg Willards' airtime promotion.

In fact, for some categories, incentives to purchase will become table stakes as retailers and marketers jostle for their share of the shopper's wallet.

By the end of 2009, our industry could look and behave quite differently. The inevitable retrenchments from agencies, media houses and related businesses, together with clients' ever-pressing needs for big ideas and effective and measurable solutions, will affect the way we do business.

Smaller, leaner teams will collaborate with a host of partners - some traditional and others unexpected. WPP's Team Chemistry is an example of the latter. A WPP initiative, driven by JWT and WPP healthcare partner agencies, recently pitched for, and won, a significant portion of Johnson & Johnson's global business.

'Garage agencies'

Similarly, in 2009, we are likely to see a mushrooming of smaller, faster, cheaper "garage agencies" as people leave formal employment to live their own dream. Many of these SMEs offer a specialist, not a full-service, offering. Of course, client has the challenge of dealing with a number of agencies, each a specialist in their own field, including the cost of coordination and loss of economies of scale. However, increasingly, in the search for "bang for buck", clients may be less concerned where the idea comes from, and more concerned with the quality and "bigness" of the idea and its potential for success.

The challenge for larger more-established agencies in 2009 is to play to their strengths while recognising and taking advantage of emergent business models and opportunities for collaboration with new partners.

From an ad spend perspective, 2009 will be filled with challenges and more of the same. Traditional media spend will not be replaced by alternative media, but there will be a shift towards digital, in-store and direct marketing.

However, will 2009 be the year that mobile marketing is truly seen as an equal partner in the mix? Will the ubiquitous "Please Call Me" advertising and Vodacom's Ads Me receive the accolades they deserve, or will marketers continue to talk about 70% mobile phone penetration (another 70% statistic - interesting), and attend conferences on the future of mobile marketing but fail to do anything to leverage this exciting but challenging channel?

South Africans are one of the most generous nations, giving significant amounts of time and money to those less fortunate than themselves. This generosity of spirit is well-expressed in MTN's recent campaign "Give Summer Love". We can expect to see more of this kind of work in 2009 as clients and agencies recognise that consumers, especially in tough times, are more likely to choose brands that do good things than brands that don't. South African consumers will be looking for brands that offer genuine, authentic promises. Window-dressing or superficial attempts to win the hearts of consumers will not cut it.

Finally, brands that embrace technology in a relevant way, engage in social marketing and remain true to their core brand promise are more likely to overcome the challenges that 2009 will bring.