Media predictions for 2010

The predictions are drawn from internal and external inputs from conversations with member firm clients, contributions from its member firms' 7000 partners and managers specialising in TMT and discussions with industry analysts as well as interviews with leading executives from around the world.

It is forecasting that digitisation will continue to be a force and will contribute to a reinvention of the global media sector. Given the heightened interest in 3D cinema viewing, many people are asking "When will we have 3D TVs?", and the answer is "Sooner than you think!"

Mark Casey, TMT industry leader for Deloitte, explains, "This year's predictions cover a range of topics, including the supremacy of broadcasters' programming schedules, the concurrent use of the web and TV and the ongoing challenges for the newspaper and magazine industry."

Linear has legs

Although 2010 is viewed as the beginning of the end for the linear schedule, the gap between linear and non-linear usage will remain substantial. Despite the growing range of non-linear options, most content will continue to be consumed according to broadcasters' programming schedules, with over 90% of television and 80% of audio being consumed in this manner.

Its lead may even extend in developing countries, where strong television sales will increase viewership, and in developed countries, where the digital switchover is likely to raise linear consumption. Charging for previously free non-linear services could also boost linear.

TV, web synchronicity

Melding web content with television programmes should intensify as concurrent use of the web and TV takes off in 2010. However, do not expect a surge in internet-enabled television sales or an explosion in the use of television widgets; converged web and television consumption is likely to be more pragmatic.

Converged web and television consumption is expected to be based on existing televisions and devices, with 'convergence' being user-driven, given the mismatch between the swelling consumer demand for concurrent web and TV usage and the typical ten-year renewal cycle for televisions.

Users will combine existing sets with stand-alone browser-enabled devices, most WiFi enabled laptops and Netbooks, Smartphones, MP4 players and portable game consoles. As simultaneous web and television use gains popularity, television producers will be encouraged to create websites that feed off viewers' eagerness to react to what they are watching.

Publishing fights back

In 2010, the newspaper and magazine industry will continue to threaten to charge readers for online content, however that talk is unlikely to be matched by action.

Publishers rumoured to be thinking about pay walls may ultimately decide against it, or choose hybrid models where most content is free, while charging only for a limited quantity of premium content. Publishers who use pay walls need to maintain and publicise the premium nature of their content. Excessive cost cutting could devalue the brand.

Online readers might be willing to become micro-payment customers, but only if the content is good enough and worth the effort. For some, acquiring an article for 30 cents online may not justify the time taken to enter credit card details. In addition, the value of the micro-payment strategy to the content provider requires volume: one micro-payment per customer every two weeks might result in transaction costs exceeding gross margins.