FAO Food Price Index falls in November as global supplies strengthen

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The monthly food price index averaged 125.1 points, down 1.2% from October and 21.9% below the March 2022 peak. Prices now sit slightly lower than this time last year.

Cereals defy the trend with a modest rise

Cereals were the only major food group to rise in November, up 1.3%.

• Wheat climbed 2.5%, supported by potential Chinese buying interest from the US, ongoing Black Sea tensions, and expectations of reduced 2026 plantings in Russia.
• Maize strengthened on firm demand for Brazilian supplies.
• Rice prices slipped as global buyers pulled back, especially for Indica and fragrant varieties.

Vegetable oils slide further

The vegetable oil price index declined 2.6%, with palm, rapeseed, and sunflower oils all experiencing a weakening. A small lift in soyoil — fuelled by strong biodiesel demand in Brazil — wasn’t enough to offset the broader decline.

Meat prices ease on strong supply competition

Global meat prices slipped 0.8% in October.

• Poultry exports increased as Brazil regained market access following lifted avian-influenza trade bans.
• Pig meat fell on high EU supplies and lower Chinese demand after the newly introduced import duties.
• Beef held steady, while ovine prices rose.

Dairy declines as milk output rises

Dairy prices dropped 3.1%, driven mainly by lower butter and whole milk powder prices. Strong milk production and abundant export availability continue to pressure the market.

Sugar sees the steepest fall

The sugar price index fell 5.9%, reflecting expectations of strong global supplies this season. Production outlooks in Brazil, India and Thailand all point upward.

Cereal output expected to break records

FAO’s updated outlook shows world cereal production set to top 3 billion tonnes for the first time, rising 4.9% to 3.003 billion tonnes. Larger-than-expected wheat harvests — notably in Argentina — drive much of the improvement.

Coarse grains and rice output are both projected to rise, with rice production growth led by Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India and Indonesia.
Global cereal utilisation is forecast to increase 2.1%, while stocks could reach a record 925.5 million tonnes. Cereal trade is also expected to pick up, rising 3.3% to 500.6 million tonnes.

The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), also hosted by FAO, released its latest Market Monitor, alongside the figures, which includes a feature examining the shifting role of International Commodity Agreements in stabilising markets.