When Switch announced that it had joined Faith Popcorn's BrainReserve Talent Bank, we were very excited. When we told our clients, they were (of course) very glad for us, but many were just being kind.
Their assumption is that trend research is for giants like Lever Brothers or Old Mutual, not for a mid-sized South African business. This misconception is partly because many of us think of a “futurist” as someone that talks about floating cities, or intelligent clothing made from Internet-enabled nano-fibres. But, as Popcorn puts it, “The future is not 10 years away. It starts the second after now.”
The trends that BrainReserve examines are based on a core set of consumer patterns that it has been studying, in some cases for 15 or more years. These trends grow stronger and weaker over time. Some weave in and out of each other, and some spin off counter-trends. They are broad-brush descriptions of how different groups of people and communities behave, how this is changing, and where it may go.
The major trends the BrainReserve studies are driven by factors as old as the human race - access to energy, food, personal security and personal needs - along with factors that are brand new - Internet, democratisation of information, high mobility.
Researching these trends is not the hard part of what futurists do when pulled into a brand strategy project for a client. No, the clever bit is working out how and where to apply the trend models in a way that lets you make better strategic decisions right now.
This is where the Switch strategy team's links with the Talent Bank come in: there are specialists from all over the world—in developed and developing countries—doctors, scientists, teachers, missionaries and more in a global network. These people allow you to understand what is happening now, and how trends patterns to can be overlaid with your business plan to develop the most likely prediction of how your brand can make the best, easiest and fastest journey from where it is now to where you want it to be.
While research reports can only confirm or reject your current understandings, dialogue with these specialists allows you to ask questions, find unexpected patterns and move into a new space.
We have the global economic crisis, along with purely local game-changers. We're anxious about the outcome of the Jacob Zuma trial and how it will affect our politics, or how 2010 will pan out - but remember that ANC politicians and football-mad tourists are just streams in the currents of society; they both influence and are part of the greater trends that sweep us into the future.
Trends usually play out in both positive and negative ways. The negative “Atmosfear” trend where people live in terror of what they're eating, drinking and breathing (never mind those taxis!) can also play out into a positive “Save Our Society” socially aware activism. This can swing even further, into “Vigilante Consumerism”, where angry, angry consumers find each other and take on big brands that they believe are doing wrong.
How does this shape our thinking when working on brand strategies for South African companies? At the moment we're rich in ‘Atmosfear', but by supporting brand activities that play towards the “Save Our Society” trend, you may start with a deep-seated fear, but give people a feeling that they can do something about it (along with the positive associations with your brand).
Take the “Pleasure Revenge” trend - people who are punch-drunk with all the tales of health threats may go out and do bad things anyway, and damn the consequences. Like hitting the shooters at the bar on Friday, or eating a giant greasy burger. And with this may come a variation called “Detox-retox” - a carousel of super-healthy living, followed by a lurch into bacchanal debauchery, and then back to the gym and salads for lunch.
With all the economic woes right now, we're also seeing an upsurge in “Small Indulgences”: even if we can't live the sybaritic life of luxury, we can still indulge in a R25 gourmet coffee or a new lipstick from the best cosmetics brand around.
When your brand is woven into the reality of peoples' day-to-day lives, then you have succeeded in your brand strategy.
