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“While South Africa’s renewables programme has been stalled over the past three years, falling prices for renewable power has led to exponential growth in investment and an accelerated energy transition globally,” says Brenda Martin, CEO of South African Wind Energy Association (Sawea).
The energy transition is punctuated by two critical tipping points, namely:
“South African electricity consumers would thus be better off if between three and five of Eskom’s oldest coal stations were shut down as soon as possible, rather than operated to their scheduled end-of-life, and the country’s energy needs were instead met by new renewable power producers,” Martin points out.
The government’s REI4P has also contributed to the decline in renewables prices, through its competitive auctions, a successful model that has been implemented in SA since 2011. This programme has resulted in the procurement of 6.3GW of independent renewable power projects, of which half had been connected to the grid by the end of 2017. As a result, consistent procurement, an entirely new green economy industry was spawned in South Africa, creating thousands of new jobs.
“The tired, old critique that renewable power will reduce power system reliability is now completely debunked by sophisticated computer models run by both Eskom and numerous independent analysts. These models optimise the mix of generation choices to ensure a level of security of supply that is equivalent or even superior to what is currently achieved. The results consistently confirm that on a least-cost path most of South Africa’s new capacity will be renewable, with some system support from gas turbines, and a growing role for energy storage,” she says.
“In addition, it is worth considering that the CSIR and other research institutes have conclusively demonstrated that the option of new wind, solar PV and flexible generation capacity in South Africa delivers the least-cost electricity price trajectory in the years ahead to 2050 and beyond, as well as least water consumption, lowest carbon emissions and the most jobs.”