Update to analysis of US citizens' emotional responses to presidential candidates

The recent survey by Added Value reveals the deep-seated emotional triggers that predict how people will vote on 4 November and explains the motivations behind their decisions. The survey was conducted with Added Value's Emotional Brand Connection (EBC) methodology

US commentators had described the infomercial as a likely deal-breaker or deal-maker. The EBC result indicates that it was neither, with the emotional intensity surrounding the campaign outcome remaining unchanged from the EBC survey conducted a month ago. However, it suggests that newly registered voters, women and African Americans all have an intense investment in a positive outcome for Obama, making him likely to maintain his campaign momentum.

Added Value asked US citizens, "What was the single most important thing you took away from the Obama infomercial?" There were four broad emotional responses among Americans, according to Added Value:

Almost no difference

There was almost no difference in the Emotional Intensity Indices between those who watched Obama's infomercial and those who did not.

• The negative respondees did not speak against Obama's policies per se, but some expressed fear of the candidate.
  
• Positive respondees, who significantly outweighed the negatives, were more concerned with solutions to specific issues, and the big picture of what ‘they want America to become' - a message which Obama has played through the campaign with ‘Time for Change.'
  
• The "undecideds" have far less vested in the outcome. Without a clear sense of the consequence in their lives, they're unable to make a decision.

Says Paul McGowan, CEO global clients, at Added Value, “Voters act on how they anticipate the politicians will make them feel. In other words, what is the (emotional) consequence of that choice?

“Obama has been asking Americans the same thing we did with our survey: imagine what your life will be like in a few years. How does that make you feel? What we're seeing are young voters, newly registered voters, African Americans, and women all having an intense investment in the outcome, much more so than their counterparts.

“The intensity of these feelings is driven more than anything by the clarity, consistency and timeliness of the identities of each candidate.

“Obama has been incredibly disciplined, steady and consistent. Like Apple, Virgin, Harley and other iconic brands, we've learned what to expect from him. It's easy to distinguish what's in and out of character. He has defined voters' expectations and does not veer far from them at all. This is a marked contrast from McCain, who has been an erratic, reactive moving target.”

Archetype theory

Added Value has also used archetype theory to assess each candidate's personality over the course of the campaign. Obama clearly emerged as a ‘Hero' and his archetype has remained unchanged. McCain however, has drifted from ‘Sage' - wise and experienced at the outset of the campaign - to ‘Regular Guy,' the same archetype as George Bush from whom he has sought to distance his candidacy.

In the aforementioned recent survey, Added Value asked 2677 likely voters across the US to envision their daily lives two years from now under four different scenarios: with McCain in office; with Obama in office; with McCain/Palin in office and with Obama/Biden in office.

Added Value measured the range of emotions (ANGER, ANTICIPATION, FEAR, SADNESS, ACCEPTANCE, DISGUST, JOY AND SURPRISE) evoked by the imagined scenarios to calculate an Emotional Intensity Index (EII). The higher the score, the greater the emotional consequence ascribed to the outcome of the election, and the greater the motivation to vote.

“While many people predict that the race will tighten as the election draws near, the results of the survey offer a critical analysis of the emotions that are triggered in response to a particular political brand,” said Maggie Taylor, CEO of Added Value, North America. "Emotions attached to the race differ widely in intensity and type when examined along gender, age, ethnic and ideological lines, so identifying and leveraging the discrete emotional territories associated with each candidate could be a make or break strategy for the candidates in this last week."

Overall emotional intensity

While everyone has more positive feelings about a scenario in which their candidate wins, Added Value's survey found that those backing Obama are more emotionally invested in the outcome of the election than those supporting McCain, imagining a much brighter outlook for their future should their candidate win. People “definitely planning” on voting for Obama had an average EII score of 66, compared to 62 for McCain.

“Neuroscience has found that the higher the intensity of the emotion, the greater the likelihood an individual will seek out the given reward. With that in mind, this survey suggests that Obama enthusiasts are more motivated to get out and actually vote in order to attain their emotional reward, compared to McCain supporters,” said Taylor.

Generational differences

Young voters (18 - 34) score 52 on the EII, while 65+ voters score 35, indicating that the emotional consequence of the election is most keenly felt by young people and decreases as voters age. This is not a “generational truism”; Added Value typically sees much smaller generational differences in emotional reactions to brands. People 65+ tend to have a slightly greater emotional connection to given brands, perhaps because they have had more time to form stronger brand loyalties, while younger individuals are more open to exploration.

The survey reveals these two groups are motivated by very different feelings, with ACCEPTANCE, ANTICIPATION and FEAR primarily pulling the generations apart.

When young voters envision a Republican win, it triggers feelings of FEAR and SADNESS; it appears they are signalling a strong desire to escape. When they imagine Obama as president, they feel a sense of trust and support coupled with ANTICIPATION. He represents destiny, freedom and empowerment.

When the oldest group of voters imagines a McCain win, they too experience ANTICIPATION coupled with JOY that creates a deep sense of optimism founded on the ideals of valued possession. Conversely, a Democratic win engenders feelings of ANGER among this age group, as if something they possessed has been wrested from them.

“The survey results reveal a clear generational power struggle, with younger voters wanting to find their voice and carve out their own place in history and older voters longing to hold onto a sense of control and order in the world," continued Taylor. "It has been said that power is never given away, that it must be taken. This could be a contributing factor in driving young people to the polls."

Undecideds

The survey finds that if an individual is not emotionally invested in the outcome of the election, he/she is more likely to be an Undecided. Whereas the EII level for Decideds is in the high 60s, it is only 40 for the Undecideds. Some of these Undecideds are taking a keen interest in the election; some are just tuning the whole thing out. Those taking a keen interest tend to experience greater SADNESS (disappointment, pessimism, sluggishness) when thinking about the outcome of the election than those opting out, and a significantly lower level of DISGUST (feeling ashamed, stupid, naughty).

“This higher level of sadness among Undecideds who are interested in the election might indicate dissatisfaction with the choice of candidates or a feeling that the outcome of the election won't have any impact on the country's future,” suggested Taylor.

Men vs women

A sense of JOY is strongest among men - feelings of fulfillment, control, relaxation and energy - with an EII score of 40 if the Republicans retain the White House. However, women show greater emotional intensity with an EII score of 44 due to a heightened sense of FEAR with McCain in the White House. While women don't think their lives will change much in two years, they anticipate feeling more unsure, awkward, nervous, uncomfortable, tense and scared under a McCain administration. On the other hand, an Obama win triggers feelings of confidence, of being admired and of their lives having greater importance.

Impact of VP candidates

Among male voters, the emotional voltage attached to the election is the same when considering John McCain vs Barack Obama. However, once the VP candidates enter the equation, emotions significantly intensify for the Democratic duo. Obama and Biden trigger greater levels of ACCEPTANCE (feeling confident, cool, admired, doing something important) than the McCain and Palin team.

• Headed by global CEO Janine Hawkins, the Added Value Group (www.added-value.com) fuses brand marketing, consumer insight, innovation, and communications optimisation to help solve clients' marketing problems. Its footprint that now extends across 25 locations in 15 countries, drawing on the expertise within its global network, The group is part of the Kantar Group, the information, insight and consultancy arm of WPP, one of the leading communications services companies.