February cash withdrawals lower than expected

The SCI recorded a marginal month-on-month increase of 0.69% in average cash withdrawal figures for February 2013, to R443.56. This follows a month-on-month drop of 9.18% in average cash withdrawal figures in January 2013, compared to December 2012.

According to Russel Berman, sales director of Spark ATM Systems, this is an indication that consumers are still under financial pressure following the festive season splurge. "While it is encouraging to note a positive increase following the drastic drop in January 2013, we were hoping for a bigger bounce back, especially if we assume that the economy is in the first stage of an up-cycle."

However, he says, a notable month-on-month increase should be expected for March 2013 ahead of the Easter holiday season, when many consumers spend more on entertainment and travel during the school holiday break.

Bumper year-on-year growth

While the SCI did reveal a significant year-on-year growth of 7.71% for February 2013, according to Ronel Oberholzer, Principal Economist at IHS Global Insights, this is not necessarily a sign that consumers are in a better financial position this year given the low figure of R411.82 recorded for February 2012.

"The February SCI indicates that it is 'back to work' for South African consumers who are cutting back on unnecessary costs such as entertainment and travelling after the festive season splurge, which is evident from the month-on-month declines in ATM withdrawal activity recorded at leisure (1.30%) and petrol (0.62) sites," says Oberholzer.

Berman says that higher average cash withdrawal values and month-on-month growth recorded at wholesale (R451.79; 1.35%) and retail (R432.20; 1.11%) sites reveal that consumers are stocking up on supplies again following the January slump and are taking advantage of post-festive season sales.

"Given that many people receive their annual increases at the end of the financial year in February, paired with the Easter weekend falling a bit earlier this year, we can anticipate positive growth in the March 2013 statistics," concludes Berman.

Provincial cash withdrawal trends

For a second month in a row, the Eastern Cape recorded the highest provincial average cash withdrawal value (R467.44) for February 2013, followed by Mpumalanga (R459.89) and KwaZulu-Natal (R458.60) provinces.

"It is no coincidence that households in these provinces also report being the largest recipients of remittance income - which is money sent home, usually by working family members based in the metro areas," says Oberholzer. "In fact, according to the latest General Household Survey, a full 22% of households in the Eastern Cape report receiving remittance income."

She says that even though the Eastern Cape experienced a 1.71% month-on-month drop in the average cash withdrawal size, one should not discount the fact that many workers sending remittance income home to the Eastern Cape are likely to be farmworkers based in the Western Cape, who may have found that the recent instability in that sector has lowered the amounts they are able to send home.

Site/location category cash withdrawal trends

Wholesale locations recorded the highest cash withdrawal value (R451.79) and month-on-month growth (1.35%), while petrol sites came in with the second highest average cash withdrawal value (R445.31), followed by retail (R432.20) which also had the second highest month-on-month growth (1.11%).

"The growth in ATM activity noted at wholesale and retail sites is directly related to the boost in spending at these locations as consumers are drawn to post festive season offers," says Berman.