New Inflation Watch data covers April to June 2012

TV

Rates +9.0%
Performance -0.49%
MIW Index (CPM) +9.91%

SABC 1 led the SABC charge with rates up by 19.4% but it delivered 6% less audience, yielding an uncomfortable MIW (CPM) increase of 27.1%. SABC2 is MIW (CPM) was even higher. The people at eTV were somewhat more conservative: charging 6.2% more but delivering 7.6% more audience and so providing -1.3% MIW (CPM). Overall Free-to-Air is rates were up by 12.5% but audiences were down by 1% and so MIW (CPM) was 14.6%.

Over at DStv Media Sales, the picture is very different. In the second quarter 2012, the rates for many of the packages were cut and/or additional spots provided. Yet for many stations audience improved. The worst performing station in Paid TV was M-Net which had a very modest 2.7% rate increase yet lost 14.2% audience, and so MIW (CPM) was up by 19.8%. This audience is not so much a loss to the network as a cannibalisation. In summary, Paid TV rates were scarcely changed at +0.4%, audience was up by 4.0% and so MIW (CPM) was down by 1.6%.

Print

Rates +5.49%
Performance -5.13%
MIW Index (CPM) +11.81%

The print media category continues to suffer from circulation woes. This is most notable amongst dailies, which put on 5.2% in rate but lost 8.6% in performance (circulation). This got them +15.8% MIW Index (CPM). Independent Newspapers' Cape Argus is the worst performer: its move to tabloid in March has led to an 18.6% decrease in ABC circulation first six months of 2012 over the same period in 2011. A new rate card resulted in a +13.1% hike so a +39.0% in MIW Index (CPM). Avusa's Sowetan achieved a 20% slide in circulation and so a very unpalatable +33.6% MIW Index (CPM).

Most of Media24 is dailies had a rate freeze. Thus Beeld, which had a smaller circulation decrease, managed to come in at +5.9% MIW Index (CPM). KwaZulu-Natal's Zulu language Isolezwe bucked the trend by putting on 4.8% circulation, proving it is not all doom and gloom.

Weekend and weekly newspapers and consumer magazines were a mixed bunch. City Press put on circulation, which, with a rate freeze, meant an actual decline in MIW Index (CPM) by 6.1%.

Consumer magazines were also a mixed bag. Most rate increases were low, and even some decreases. Circulations of some notable niche magazines like Bicycling, Destiny, Elle Decoration, House & Leisure, Popular Mechanics and Your Baby were up by a good margin. However, most were down. Fairlady was down by 17.7% and FHM by even more 20.9%. In all consumer magazines, rates were +5.3%, performance -3.8% and MIW Index +10.2%.

Radio

Rates +6.04%
Performance -1.99%
MIW Index (CPM) +12.36%

Like TV, radio is a tale of two halves. Black format stations upped their rates by 7.4% and added 1% performance to provide +7.5% MIW Index (CPM). Within this category, the SABC's stations were particularly friendly to buyers rates +6.5% but with +2.9% audience to arrive at +4.5% MIW Index (CPM).

The CIW format stations were a different matter. Rates were up by 5.4% but performance slumped by 3.4% to provide +14.7% MIW Index (CPM). Primedia's 94.7 Highveld and 702 were solid performers, getting to -8.4% and -18.0% MIW Index (CPM) respectively. However, Jacaranda and East Coast did not fare so well. Low rate increases but audience declines got them +43.9% and +42.7% MIW Index (CPM).

That said; look at the cost per thousands. The average Black format station comes in at R16.97 whereas the average CIW is R51.17. 702 comes in at R59.59, 94.7 Highveld is R47.16, Jacaranda is R46.24 and East Coast at R34.50. So evaluate rates changes against comparative values.

Out of Home

Rates +0.00%
MIW Index (CPM) +0.00%

Important outdoor contractors and buyers contacted confirm that the Out of Home industry kept its 2012 rates at 2011 levels.

Cinema

Rates +19.90%
Performance -0.2%
MIW Index (CPM) +20.1%

The data is largely 2011 performance so this may change for the even better or worse in subsequent releases.

Online

Rates -1.30%
Performance 0.00%
MIW Index (CPM) -1.3%

Online has now been included as a medium in Inflation Watch and in the CPM Analysis. It was not possible to get revenues for individual sites so an intra-medium weighting is not possible. To evaluate online a schedule of eight of the top regular sites by interest/audience was created. All of them levied rates on a CPM basis so the sum of the rate card cost of 1x1000 audience in each is trended. The use of this metric means audience growth can be stripped out to track real input rate percentage change. Be aware that many sites do offer massive discounts, perhaps at levels higher than any other medium. Build this factor into any evaluation.

Total All Media

Rates +6.95%
Performance -1.72%
MIW Index (CPM) +10.32%

A reduction on 2012 Q1 on 2011 Q1, largely due to a reduction in the growth of TV's rates.

Note: a re-reading of 702 and Cape Talk's rate card from July 2011 has resulted in a reduction in the stations' rate and thus MIW Index (CPM). This has reduced Radio and All Media indices marginally for 2011.

For more, go to www.online.mediamanager.co.za.