Research uncovers trends in African consumer spending

Detailed analysis reveals the specific opportunities available to boost bottom lines of companies already operating, or considering expanding into Africa.

"The World Bank is on record as saying that Africa is on the verge of an economic take-off, much like China was 30 years ago and India 20 years ago," says Thalma Corbett, chief economist and head of research at NKC.

"Although it will probably not be of the same magnitude as China; Africa and its investors will, however, have an opportunity to benefit immensely from demographic change over the next few decades as the growth of its working-age population outpaces that of its overall population, provided that the correct policies are in place.

"The determining factors will be the pace of economic reform and job creation. Investors should be asking whether and where we will see the policy implementation needed to catalyse such demographic change.

"We estimate that in 2010, 89.4% of Africa's population earned less than $2500 per annum in real terms. By 2050, this proportion is forecasted to fall to 66.8%. Over the same period, the proportion of people earning $6500 or more is expected to increase from 2.3% to 19.6%."

ASCM portfolio manager of the Africa Fund, Murray Todd notes, "The implications for consumer-facing industries are striking. By combining the research's real GDP per capita forecasts with its consumer spending model, we are able to estimate at what income levels spending on different goods start."

Graph 1

The graph illustrates important consumer patterns across the African continent:

click to enlarge

Key findings

• When the potential demographic window of opportunity is combined with the outlook for structural economic reforms and the prospects for job creation, the research arrived at a list of 10 African countries most likely to benefit from demographic changes over the next two decades (in alphabetic order): Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa and Tunisia.
  
• Some countries may have favourable demographics, but poor government policies or a high level of unemployment waters down the potential benefits of these for economic growth. Countries that can be classified in this category include Algeria, Gabon and Libya.
  
• If Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) follows the path of the baseline scenario*, the region's GDP per capita will reach the level China attained in 2010 by 2041.
  
• North Africa starts from a higher base than SSA, but is expected to see a slower take-off due to weaker economic growth prospects and a turbulent political environment during the period 2011-14. North Africa is expected to reach China's 2010 real GDP per capita level by 2021 in the baseline scenario.
  
• As income increases, people will tend to previously neglected dietary needs and, at a certain point, there will be a quality shift, eg switching to better brand names, or including more meat in their diet. For the large majority of the African population the nutritional transition is currently still focused on quantity increase rather than quality increase.

* The baseline scenario is the path the research believes to be the more likely one; the optimistic view illustrates what can be achieved if the pace of economic and/or political reforms is faster than anticipated and/or if there is a faster expansion in minerals production, telecommunications, banking etc. Finally, the pessimistic path is an illustration of what could possibly happen should reforms falter.