The gap between optimistic blacks and pessimistic whites is narrowing, the latest consumer confidence poll by Stellenbosch University's Bureau for Economic research found.
The sharpest drop in four years saw the overall CCI nearly halve from 22 in the final quarter of last year to 12, indicating the average South African remains positive.
White consumer confidence, however, has fallen one point into pessimistic territory while black consumer confidence is still at a happy 18. This is despite black consumer confidence plummeting twice as much as white consumer confidence.
Cees Bruggemans, the chief economist at the survey's sponsor First National Bank, said: “The surprise for me was the reaction from white consumers. Given the enormous complaining of recent months, about Eskom electricity interruptions and inflation racing ahead, but also widespread political concerns, not least with Zimbabwe's example next door, one was ready for historic confidence plunging.
“Nothing of the sort happened.”
Bruggemans found it encouraging that the steadily widening new divide between black and white consumer confidence of the past three years narrowed by five points.
“Both sets of consumers may again come to see events through roughly similar lenses ere long.”
The middle classes seem to be feeling the pinch of inflation and higher interest rates more than the rich and poor. Middle-income consumer confidence dropped 11 points while high and low income groups both registered an eight point drop.
“Life apparently mostly remains a breeze, which comes as a surprise. But then employment is still expanding, the Minister of Finance has no end with his fiscal largesse, and, yes, interest rates stopped climbing in January. It doesn't prevent recession in cars and other durable goods, and increasingly the property market and new house building as well, but that just shows a healthy caution among most consumers to pull back a bit and watch the show.
“The good news must be that households by and large haven't as yet been financially devastated by events, nor do they expect this to happen in the coming year,” Bruggemans concluded.
Source: The Times
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