The economic impacts and prospects of Covid-19

Futurist, Marius Oosthuizen

“To put things into perspective, if South Africa’s 59-million people were to do nothing at this point, the country would require over 500 thousand critical-care hospital beds – we currently only have about 5,500 of these, of which 88% are already occupied. Fortunately, with the restricted movement being imposed through the lockdown, this number drastically decreases by 70%. This is the only way the country is able to reduce the chances of unmanageable widespread societal infection," says Marius Oosthuizen, a professional futurist through a webinar hosted by the Southern African Venture Capital and Private Equity Association (Savca)

Being a few weeks behind some other affected nations, Oosthuizen notes that South Africa is fortunate to have real-life case studies of countries that have handled this crisis well – such as South Korea – and those that haven’t, such as Italy and the US. “We know from the case of South Korea that the only way to effectively curb the social spread of the virus is through a combination of government and civil action early on.”

He notes, however, that South Africa remains particularly vulnerable from an economic perspective. “The pandemic started as an infection problem with a supply-side disruption from China, but has gradually moved over to a lock-down environment causing a global economic slow-down, which has precipitated the combination of a disease burden in society and a currency and fiscal crisis – something that South Africa is at major risk of.”

Three waves

This economic impact, according to Oosthuizen, will play out in three waves for South Africa. “The first wave, which is currently playing out, is having a direct impact on tourism, aviation and commodity demand. The indirect impact of this will be dampened medium-term demand.”

The second wave of impact will be the disease burden, social distancing and psychological strain that will be felt over April and May. “The scale and rate of infection will depend on the scale and effectiveness of response,” he says, noting that the third and final wave of impact that the country will likely experience over June and July, will be based on adapted conduct, the level of supply disruptions, fiscal restructure and decline in earnings.

“South Africa, in addition to already being in a fragile economic state prior to this pandemic, is dependent on commodity exports and is highly exposed to Asian and US consumer markets. It is for these reasons that I believe we will face a contraction in GDP of between 3-5% as a result of Covd-19,” says Oosthuizen.

Four scenarios

Moving away from the shorter-term doom and gloom, Oosthuizen insists that there will be a long-term recovery, but notes four potential scenarios for how this might play out in South Africa. “The first scenario, ‘a storm in a tea cup’, is one where there is a slow rate and small scale of infection, with ineffective response. My feeling is we have already surpassed this scenario, as we continue to see exponential rates of infection.

“This means that South Africa risks seeing the second scenario, ‘the perfect storm’, play out. Here we would see a fast rate and large scale of infection, with ineffective response,” he warns, noting that South Africa is particularly vulnerable to this scenario considering the number of people with respiratory diseases like tuberculosis, as well as the high rate of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among the population.

Fortunately, Oosthuizen believes that the measures needed to avoid ‘the perfect storm’ scenario are completely within the country’s control. “We are seeing these measures being implemented now with the national lockdown, which will hopefully take us into an ‘after the storm’ scenario. If this scenario plays out, the real challenge will be the economic recovery, which is why the Department of Small Business Development has already launched a debt relief fund to help mitigate the impact on smaller businesses.”

The fourth and final potential scenario that Oosthuizen presents, namely ‘Africa spared’, is a major wildcard which he says is extremely unlikely at this point. “This is a scenario where, for some exogenous reason such as climate, Africa only has a limited number of infections with effective responses.”

At this point, Oosthuizen has made it clear that South Africa is likely facing either “the perfect storm” or an “after the storm” scenario. “The most important thing for South Africa to do now, is accept these two scenarios and do everything in our power to avoid ‘the perfect storm’ from playing out. This is especially crucial considering how vulnerable some parts of the African continent are and how devastating this pandemic would be if it were to continue spreading.

“Of course, for this to be effective, South African people and businesses need to do everything in our power to follow these national efforts – together, we can flatten the curve.” says Oosthuizen.