BMi report on milk substitute, Maas market

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Milk substitutes

The milk substitutes market is dominated by powdered creamers, which make up three quarters of the volume. The balance of the market consists of full cream milk powder volumes and equally skim milk powders and powdered milk blends.

The milk powders category is very volatile with an overall per capita volume decline in 2009 and 2010. However, growth of 11% is expected in 2011.

• Much of the decline in 2009 was a result of milk shortages in the previous year, leaving little milk available for dehydration. Milk supply improved from 2009 to 2011 but much of the volumes were utilised to replenish cheese supplies
  
• Full cream powders saw a substantial volume increase, with the biggest product growth in the category. The outlook for 2012 onwards is again conservative due to market volatility
  
• Powdered milk blends saw an increase for the first time in five years and the current levels were last seen in the 90s
  
• The last product within the milk powders category, skim milk powders saw a slight increase taking the annual volumes back to levels last seen in 2007. The growth trend is estimated to continue in the short term at least

The powdered creamer market in 2011, for the first time in four years, saw a much better growth.

• The category has seen some shifts in terms of players entering and exiting, but overall market demand from a consumer perspective has remained constant, therefore producer movements have had little bearing on the market size as a whole
  
• Within the local market, there has been continued diversification of the category into sub-categories, such as coffee creamers and tea creamers. This level of innovation has served to renew interest in the category overall
  
• Given the local and international consumer trend to greater awareness of food ingredients and labelling, the category has come under increasing pressure. The consumer changed to consumption of low fat and natural ingredients, is completely incongruent with the high fat content and perceived synthetic nature of powdered creamers. While the creamers offer a convenience benefit, this might not outweigh the drive to greater health and wellness, and therefore the category may face volume erosion in the long term
  
• The market is expected to show growth in the short term, however at a lower level than the 2011 volumes

Milk substitutes - total market volume - 2011

Channel distribution of milk substitutes - 2011

Note: Includes exports; percentages may not add up to 100%, due to rounding

Local regional distribution of milk substitutes - 2011

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Buttermilk and Maas markets

The buttermilk and maas category saw a steady growth in volume and value during 2009, 2010 and 2011

• The category appears to be largely unaffected by the recession and seems to have escaped the rationalisation seen for a number of other categories
  
• The 2011 price increase is as a result of producer input cost escalation that have been buffered for some time. Evidence of this is seen in the limited price increases since 2008. The final consumer has been kept from experiencing the price increases throughout the recession
  
• Inflation in manufacturing costs have been largely absorbed by manufacturers and their attempts to keep their brands competitive within the market and, as a result, the overall category has remained competitive and maintained popularity during the economic crisis
  
• A primary objective for producers is to expand into smaller provinces in an attempt to grow both the market as well as market share

Channel distribution of buttermilk and maas - 2011

Regional distribution of buttermilk and maas - 2011

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