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[2010 trends] Don't get too caught up in FIFA fever
Ninety five percent of clients' advertising budgets will remain the same or decline in real terms. The 5% that will increase will be those that are associated with the world cup. This will be a continuation of the last two years.
Media owners are going to have to become more creative in how they sell their product. Repeat business is not going to be guaranteed and new business is going to be awarded based on what the offer is. Ads24.co.za has just announced its 2010 rate increases and that it will be adopting a sliding scale, dictated by advertising demand, much the same as how TV rates are set.
"Show us the added value/discount" is going to become the norm. Clients and agencies alike are not going to just "accept" the rate increases that are thrown on the table, nor will we make commitments to media owners without ensuring that we get the best "bang for our buck" on behalf of our clients.
Media owners are going to have to package advertising airtime/space to ensure budgets are met. Media owners who have a couple of titles and/or stations to offer will do well to package these. Not only will this generate a higher percentage of the overall budget, but it will fill up space.
Mid-May through to mid-August are going to be very lean months for the majority of media owners. The general thought and recommendation is that if you don't need to fight for awareness or impact, then stay out of the media. The old saying "if you can't beat them, join them" will change to "if you can't beat them, stay away!"
Selling off entities and merging of others is going to become a regular news headline as media owners revert to their core lines of business. The strong will survive, the meek will cease, irrespective of how many people like that specific title/station. It is going to be a financial decision, not a "no advertising support therefore closure" decision.
Clients will become more demanding to ensure that their budgets are being spent most effectively. Every deal will have to be the best deal; every deal thereafter will have to improve as well. The good old "normal" offerings are not going to crack it.
Agencies - creative and media alike - will be doing more work, for less money and quicker turnaround times, to stay ahead of competitors. From a creative perspective, it will boil down to who can turn around a campaign which is to the brief, the quickest, for the least money.
If all goes well, hopefully we will see an upturn in the economy in the third quarter of 2010. No looking glass will ever be able to give us an exact end date to these tough times, however we live in hope. Is 2010 not the one year that we can all live in hope all the time?
Last but not least, October-to-mid-December will see an increase in advertising activity as it always has over a number of years. This activity, however, may not only be restricted to traditional media. Social media, ensuring reach of a number of new target markets such as the youth and the previous technophobes and a number of other markets, will all help increase the advertising spend.
Most importantly, 2010 should not be seen as a "negative" year, but rather as one of possible huge change with massive opportunities!