As expected, withdrawal values measured on a year-on-year basis are down by 0.67%. "Bearing in mind the inflated June 2010 value, which was caused by the 2010 FIFA World Cup festivities, the June 2011 SCI values are slightly down on last year's value. This however was expected and is a result of a strong prior year performance rather than current weakness," says Marc Sternberg, MD of Spark ATM Systems.
A new feature of the SCI, launched last month, is the comparison of the SCI's average cash withdrawal values against Stats SA's Retail Sales Figures (RSF). The correlation is extremely close and, as the SCI is released some two months ahead of the Stats SA report, the SCI therefore provides useful forecasting information as to the future direction of the RSF.
"The spike seen in both the SCI and the RSF in April reflects the extended Easter, Freedom Day and Workers Day spending that we experienced this year. When the May and June RSF are released, we expect to see a sharp drop in May and the figures to even out in June, as are reflected in the SCI results to date."
If one looks at the trends in the SCI in previous years, which reflect the July school holiday mini-spike, the company expects the July 2011's average cash withdrawal figures to be slightly up on June's.
The SCI is a 'real-time' gauge of consumer spending, utilising its ATM Systems' network of over 1400 ATM points countrywide to reflect accurate, broad and timely cash utilisation data. Its ATMs are typically located in convenience stores, petrol stations, specialist retail nodes and leisure & hospitality venues.
The value for the SCI uses the formula: Cash dispensed for the month divided by the number of cash withdrawals for the month across a selection of its ATM network. The sample size is hundreds of thousands of transactions, in both urban and rural areas across all nine provinces of South Africa, therefore representing a very good cross section of South African consumers. The data presented is raw data and has not been adjusted for seasonality or for the effects of inflation.
