Using the lockdown drop in energy demand for a better future
With South Africa's demand for electricity having dropped by approximately one third since the beginning of the Covid-19- lockdown, Eskom is using this time to complete much needed short-term maintenance on several of its power stations.
While the utility may not be able to work on the larger, more complicated maintenance projects during the lockdown, as work on those would take months if not years to complete, Eskom’s quick and positive response to the drop in demand has inspired action across other projects.
The recent drop in the oil price is also likely to be in Eskom’s favour, not least because it is anticipated to settle at around the $30 per barrel mark. Cheaper diesel for the unavoidable instances where the utility must turn to its generators for support will also help it reduce its significant debt.
Municipalities must take a leaf out of Eskom’s book, and also use the lockdown to implement preventive maintenance projects, within the limits of essential services staffing, to help reduce the frequent localised power failures and burst water pipes that impact service delivery in our cities. This would be particularly relevant for the various industrial areas, where heavy manufacturing and smelting consumers are currently not operating.
They could also use this time positively to compile or update their asset registers, creating the foundations for a comprehensive digital twinning and building information modelling (BIM) strategy. This would allow municipal utilities to anticipate maintenance requirements and implement cost effective measures to prevent breakage, rather than being compelled to complete expensive repairs while customers languish without services.
Scenario planning
However, regardless of how national and municipal utilities use the current lockdown to achieve positive outcomes, it’s vital for them to use this time to engage in scenario planning for the changed world beyond the Covid-19 pandemic.
Businesses that previously insisted on workers being on site are realising that teams can work well remotely, with the potential for reduced demand for office space in commercial hubs, and the consequent reduction in demand for electricity and water in those areas with less air conditioning and electricity required, followed by an increase in demand in residential areas.
This in turn may lead to a decentralisation of power generation with communities or businesses ‘breaking away’ from the national grid, made possible by rapidly evolving renewable energy solutions, and likely to be further supported should the independent power producer supply chain be liberalised so that produced energy doesn’t go to waste.
There’s certainly no precedent for the current situation, but there are definitely opportunities in it for Eskom, municipalities, industries, and other key economic role players to be agile, adapt, and use this time wisely to prepare for a better future beyond Covid-19.
About Philip Konig
Philip Konig is an energy consultant and project manager at Royal HaskoningDHV.
