[2009 trends] Reg Lascaris: 'It's going to be a topsy-turvy year'

Here are my predictions for the South African advertising industry in 2009:

1. Non-traditional take-off...: in a tough year, the focus will fall on maximum effectiveness at low cost. Prejudice against non-traditional media will evaporate. Data will be mined and targets refined. Non-traditional formats, including SMS and Applets, will muscle into the media mix as never before.

2. Diaspora to pour back...: boom conditions are at an end overseas. Talented South Africans with enhanced skills and wonderful breadth of experience will be affected by the shakeout. Some will ship out, coming home to SA. They are young, brave and schooled in global practice - a catalyst for exciting chemistry inside our agencies.

3. Rip up the rate card...: expect a year of negotiation on everything and anything, including rates, added value offerings, terms and conditions, you name it. Wheedling and dealing will replace wheeling and dealing.

4. Tie up those package deals...: the downturn will see an upturn in the buy-one, get-one-free proposition. We've already seen the Hummer offer of a free Harley with every purchase. Watch out for lots of cooperative activity, bundled offers and novel deals.
   
5. Red is the new black...: just ask Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Red (as in red ink) will be the colour of 2009 for many businesses, including some in our industry. In tough times, sardonic humour strikes a chord. It's started already; we're starting to hear jokes about the financial services industry and rating agencies. Copy that speaks to the prevailing mood and raises a wry smile will get great noting.

6. Cheap is the new affordable...: forget old coyness about never proclaiming cheapness. When consumers are counting every cent, weasel words such as 'affordable' and 'price competitive' don't cut to the chase like plain old-fashioned 'cheap'. If you have a price advantage, 'cheap' is going to be a very desirable position.

7. There's no business like new business...: but what new business categories will be in most demand? After all, there are only so many auctioneers to go round. In a year of trading down, strong discount brands like TOP bottle stores and Cash Converters will do well; so will every brand with the savvy to use the downturn to build market position. A little extra spending (if it's smart spending) will go a long way in 2009.

8. Local to get vocal...: the local is lekker proposition will be strongly communicated and resonate with consumers that will stay close to home. Local travel, local food, local wines and local alternatives to just about anything will do well. If you've been waiting for the chance to put Mielietuin on the map, this is your time. (Yes, the place really does exist.)

9. Politics to the rescue...: in a commercial sense, that is. Election advertising will give a much-needed boost to the media, advertising agencies and the printing industry.