Latest TAMS July universe shows significant pay TV increase

The current TAMS universe update reflects the new population updates by IHS Global Insight. The IHS demographic model differs from the previous demographic supplier SAARF used in a number of technical areas. These include the following:

• The cohort component model handles mortality in a different way, specifically with regard to the impact of HIV/AIDS.
  
• For regional distribution, slightly different techniques are employed.
  
• The model is checked for consistency with the economic, labour, income and development factors of every region in South Africa.

Due to these methodological differences between the current and previous demographers, the resultant population updates are different to the previous population estimates for a number of demographics.

In the TAMS 15+ universe, there has reportedly been significant population increases in metropolitan areas as well as a significant decrease in the rural population. A few provinces namely Northern Cape, KZN, Mpumalanga and Gauteng have increased, while some provinces saw decreases, including the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Limpopo and most notable North West.

Although not significant, LSM 6 increased by 6.9% to 7 518 738, up from 7 031 159. LSM 10 (with a decrease of 3.8%, down from 2 187 894 to 2 105 104), LSM 9 (with an increase of 4.1%, from 3 007 468 up to 3 129 350), LSM 8 (with an increase of 3.8%, from 2 784 117 up to 2 889 648) also saw noticeable changes although they were not statistically significant.

The 2011B TAMS universe has increased from 11 196 628 to 11 856 888 households (with PVR homes included). This is an increase of 5.9% and quite a bit ahead of the population change of 2.8% (adults 15+ up from 29 209 654 to 30 039 437). Pay TV has also seen significant increases in the 15+ population figures, up from 9 292 804 to 10 098 224, representing a gain of 8.7%.

The tables below show the following:

• The universe that will be implemented in July 2012 (AMPS 2011B TV metered universe)
  
• The differences between AMPS 2011A and AMPS 2011B TV metered universes.

Source: AMPS 2011A -6 months - TAMS Universe (All Adults 15+). Includes individuals with PVR in home

Source: AMPS 2011B -6 months - TAMS Universe (All Adults 15+). Includes individuals with PVR in home

Thousands difference between 2011A and 2011B Universes

Percentage change between 2011A and 2011B Universes

The TAMS universe is made up of all households, both rural and urban, with mains electricity and at least one working TV set. TAMS measures all platforms both analogue and digital and both terrestrial and satellite. Personal viewing data is captured by the TAMS meter for all household members aged four and older, and includes all guests in the home. Domestic workers are also included in the TAMS universe but are treated as separate households.

Like all TAMS panels worldwide, SAARF TAMS uses an establishment survey to estimate the size of the television universe, which will set the parameters of the sample. In South Africa TAMS uses the All Media and Products Survey (AMPS) for this purpose and the TAMS universe is therefore adjusted every six months with each new AMPS release (normally in about January and August each year).

An establishment survey is the only way to correctly reflect the relative sizes of all the different TV platforms at a given moment in time and to measure TV accurately, SAARF also needs to know amongst other things, how many TVs, and M-Net and DStv decoders, etc. people have. This information is sourced from AMPS.

While people are continuously buying new TV equipment, it is sufficient to update the TAMS universe only once every six months after new AMPS data is released as stated above. These updates routinely take place.

Updating the universe regularly ensures that the TAMS data remains up to date with changes happening in the TV arena, changes which are brought about by the constant addition of new households to the TV-viewing population, new pay-TV providers and the inexorable move to Pay TV.

For more, go to www.saarf.co.za.