Data shows that overseas tourist arrivals (foreign visitors who stayed at least one night) for the month of June 2010 were 277 345, up 150 488, or 119% compared to last year.
"Our forecast of 274 100 overseas arrivals during the World Cup event looks to be exactly on target," says Gillian Saunders, head of Grant Thornton's advisory services. "Our outlook includes the displacement factor with a significant drop in regular overseas tourism during the World Cup and also accounts for May and July World Cup arrivals, plus non-resident SA passport holder arrivals."
As expected, the month of June 2010 saw significant increases on last year's June arrivals. In total, Statistics SA reported today that there were some 215 880 (43%) more foreign tourist (overnight visitor) arrivals this year compared to June 2009, with a grand total of 505 431 foreign tourist arrivals during June.
African tourist arrivals were up 12% (44 794) compared to the previous year.
"We also factored in some displacement of usual visitors in our African tourism arrivals data," says Saunders. "If we assume around 10 - 12% displacement - plus May and outstanding July arrivals data - then the Grant Thornton African tourist arrival projections of 99 500 in total during the FIFA event also look reasonable."
Ghana - the African team that went furthest, recorded the highest tourist arrivals from Africa at an additional 3713, up 415%, off the small base of 895.
Grant Thornton's forecasts of net tourism increases from the 2010 World Cup event allowed for almost 100% displacement of normal overseas tourist arrivals, with some 50% being permanently displaced for the year, whilst the remaining 50% are expected to travel at other times. Most displaced African tourists are expected to travel at other times of the year, as opposed to being permanently displaced.
Huge increases were seen from Central and South America with a 925% (42 583) more tourists arrivals during June. This comes off a small base of just 4605 tourists from these regions in June 2009.
"Central and South America had five teams in the World Cup event this year and, while this is a small market for South Africa in general, this huge growth in arrivals was expected," adds Saunders. "We had hoped for even more visitors from this region though, especially if one considers the potential Brazilian, Mexico and Argentine football fan support base."
USA arrivals increased by 99% (by 22 321), bringing the total USA arrivals to 47 188 for June 2010.
"The USA bought the greatest number of tickets for the FIFA World Cup in South Africa and we would have expected some 25 000-30 000 world cup visitors based on ticket sales - but this number could very well be even greater," she adds.
Saunders highlights concern regarding the large number of tourist arrivals which are currently unspecified (22 892, up 898%). "Tourists which are currently unspecified in the Stats SA data points to possible failure in the systems to record under the pressure of high arrival levels, or possibly to the use of charters flights and private jets, including smaller airports where systems are not as ready to cope with foreign entries at the quantities experienced."
Saunders cautions, however, "Only when the July arrivals data is finalised coupled with the analysis of border and other key surveys in the coming months, will we be able to better understand total displacement of normal tourism, the overall World Cup visitation data and its impact on South African tourism."
Grant Thornton South Africa is a member firm within Grant Thornton International Ltd (Grant Thornton International). The firm has been operating since 1920 and has advanced from a traditional audit, accounting and tax practice and now offers a broad range of specialist advisory services to privately held businesses, public interest entities and the public sector. The company employs 840 people in South Africa with 97 partners and directors and has offices in Cape Town, Durban, East London, Johannesburg, Nelspruit, Port Elizabeth and Pretoria/Tshwane. South Africa is also a major force in the sub-Saharan Africa network, with member firms in Botswana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Uganda and Zambia.
For more information go to www.gt.co.za/index.asp.
