The research paper by a group of mainly University of Cape Town economists, published last week on online policy forum Econ 3x3, comes amid growing youth unemployment, which has sparked claims that the matric certificate no longer has much value in the job market.
But the paper, written by Nicola Branson and four others, says although labour market conditions are worsening and there are signs the quality of education is falling, a matric certificate increases earnings potential.
This is true for all age cohorts surveyed, born over a 14-year period from 1968 to 1982. For example, at the age of 25, matriculants born between 1980-82 earned 48% more on average and were 11% more likely to be employed than people with grade 10 or 11 in the same cohort.
The value of matric explains why a relatively large number of pupils persevere despite difficult circumstances, say the researchers.
This year's final exams begin next Monday (28 October), with more than 700,000 expected to write. As about 1m pupils enter school each year, this means 70% stuck it out to matric.
But while the relative value of a matric remains high, the absolute value - in comparison to earlier generations - has fallen. Looking at the trend over four decades among those born between 1944 and 1985, educational attainment has risen steadily. Among men born between 1944 and 1946, only 13% attained matric as their highest qualification. For those born from 1983 to 1985, 35% attained matric.
Along with rising educational attainment and a demand for higher skills has come a drop in earnings that a matric commands. Taking into account that people earn more as they gain experience, the study finds more recent generations "earn less in real terms than earlier generations". On average, people born after the mid-70s, who entered the market with a matric, earned 30% less in real terms than those in the previous three decades.
Source: Business Day via I-Net Bridge
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