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Severe pressure from Eskom on consumers

Duggan Matthews, an investment professional at Marriott Asset Management examines the likely consequences of the Eskom tariff proposal of 35% per year for the next three years.

According to Eskom, the typical suburban household is currently paying R990 per month for electricity. If we look at a suburban resident, with a take-home income of R20 000 per month, he is currently spending 5% of his disposable income on electricity.

A 35% annual price hike for each of the next three years, would see those average payments for electricity rising to R2436/month in the suburbs. If we assume that the resident in this example receives annual increases of 6% per annum over the next three years (using the upper band of our inflation targets), this person would earn R23 800/month by the 2012/2013 year. By then, the proportion of his income spent on electricity would rise to 10.2%. This implies an effective doubling of electricity costs in real terms and has serious implications for consumers.

Average future monthly charges 2009/20102010/20112011/20122012/2013
Typical suburban household R 990.00 R 1,336.50 R 1,804.28 R 2,435.77
% spent on electricity of a R20,000 p.m. net salary 2009/20102010/20112011/20122012/2013
6% inflationary increase 5.0%6.3%8.0%10.2%
3% inflationary increase 5.0%6.5%8.5%11.1%
% spent on electricity of a R15,000 p.m. net salary 2009/20102010/20112011/20122012/2013
6% inflationary increase 6.6%8.4%10.7%13.6%
3% inflationary increase 6.6%8.7%11.3%14.9%

For consumers who have a net monthly income of R15 000, the situation is worse. In the suburbs, such a consumer would currently be paying an average of 6.6% of his salary on electricity. Assuming a 6% annual salary increase, this consumer's electricity costs would rise to almost 14% of his monthly net income.

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