[2010 trends] Digital coming up for air

Fortunately, most South African digital businesses seem to have skirted the worst of it. In my view, this is as a result of being artificially stunted compared with the rest of the world - both because of bandwidth problems as well as a generally poor level of digital knowledge in traditional marketing and business realms. As the bandwidth eased and marketers woke up to the now undeniable imminent demise of traditional marketing, the industry grew, outpacing the slowdown in the rest of the economy.

Some may call this wishful thinking, arguing that in 2010 things will be even harder, but I think in South Africa in particular, a lot of recession was psychological and we'll be back to our drunken-sailoring ways in no time.

With that, then, my 10 predictions for 2010 in the digital industry:

The first major SA digital campaign:

This is perhaps a catch-all prediction for a general increase and shift toward digital from traditional advertising, but that's a prediction we've all been hearing ad nauseum for well over a decade.

Listen to the local digital marketing industry and one of the biggest complaints you'll still hear is that corporates don't take digital marketing seriously, and they don't allocate the kind of budgets our purple-haired friends shooting TV commercials enjoy.

Last year's Bookmark awards heard this point echoed by the international judges who have helmed multi-million dollar international campaigns.

In 2010 this will change, at least for some. My eyes are on local creative geniuses Gloo, Stonewall+ and AquaOnline - all of which have been gearing up in recent years to make it into the big leagues. I think at least one of them will convince a customer to part with real money, and at least one will stand up on a major international podium such as the Cannes Cyber Lions and take, if not gold, at least something.

Because of the prominence of South Africa this year (the soccer! the soccer! the soccer!) there is a good chance other things we do will be noticed. Our time has come.

Bandwidth is a cheap commodity:

I can perhaps be criticised here for predicting something that's already happened, but it's early days enough for me to get away with it. The end of 2009 saw some insanely cheap (by local standards) ADSL prices come into the market. Bandwidth literally came down in price in my own life by around 80%.

For many, this remains out of reach - but only just. Cellular providers are going to have to start competing with the Neotel and ADSL deals on the market. iBurst is going to have to start adding real value, or risk vanishing.

In short, 2010 will be the year cheap broadband becomes accessible to everyone who owns a PC.

The computer in our hands:

Despite the huge numbers in mobile internet usage by specific LSMs for specific things (such as Facebook or MXit), the mobile Internet has yet to grab the imagination of the technologically well-endowed. If you own a laptop or a netbook, you don't spend time surfing on a mobile device.

This year, that changes. The iPhone, which has had a relatively low penetration in the SA market, will explode in numbers, followed by a range of other devices, not least of which will be the Google Nexus 1 and other Android-powered devices.

Ironically, the thing that will make the Internet in our pockets work is not even the Internet. It's location (or, perhaps more accurately, locale). Augmented reality (where phones provide “overlays” onto the real world - think the heads-up display in Terminator) is more than a gimmick, and may be the biggest change to the way we interact with our environment since the invention of the eyeball.

Form factor remains a problem, but workable heads-up units will not be far behind. Forget the Bluetooth earpiece; hello the Bluetooth eyepiece.

Offshore hosting is viable:

The Seacom cable which landed in SA during 2009 came with promises of giant new bandwidth and cheap costs. As noted above, this does seem to be happening, contrary to the many naysayers at the time.

Perhaps the part least considered (especially by end consumers) is the fact that a fast connection to the outside world means international hosting of SA websites and applications becomes viable.

Take heed, local hosting farms whose insane costs, appalling service levels and outdated technologies have thrived behind the bottleneck. During 2010, serious businesses are going to have a serious option to move offshore where hosting is cheap and service is mind-boggling.

Local providers will no doubt try to be the midwives for companies into this world, offering partnerships and co-location deals. But whether they can move fast enough to be competitive with the big guns out there seems doubtful. For companies with websites that need to be available to SA audiences, this is an incredible opportunity to shave major costs.

Social media consulting evolves:

Social media is maturing and consolidating. A number of social media consultants have made a lot of money doing the basics, in the same way early web development companies made a fortune knocking together basic HTML pages.

This year companies will get smarter about managing their own social media - and the days of expensive Facebook pages and large retainers to tweet a few times a week will draw to the close. Those that have the stuff will evolve into agencies offering creative, intelligent social media PR or campaigns. Those that don't will get hurt.

Internet as utility:

This may seem a lame prediction, and another tired old horse that's run its share of races. But I do believe 2010 is the point where SA stops seeing the Internet as something to “go to” and as something immersive that's already wherever you are.
This has a number of implications, but chief among them for me is the idea that the concept of a “website” is going to start vanishing. Instead, a brand will need to have a “digital presence” with many parts spread across the many devices and applications with which people on the Internet engage.

Already a business with its sh*t together has several websites, mobisites, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, YouTube pages - and maybe as many as five or 10 other touchpoints online. They may also offer an iPhone application, podcasts, e-books.

What I'm suggesting is that the notion of what a business is online is going to consolidate into something more cohesive that - like the company website was in the past - will be looked after centrally, will talk the same language, and will have some kind of continuity.

It's a big job that currently spreads across multiple departments within the business and - even more difficult - many different agencies or suppliers. But it's going to happen because people are starting to realise that digital is digital, and to make it work, it needs to be thought of as a unified undertaking.

One Profile to Rule Them All:

The above point leads quickly to this one: people don't want to have many different profiles and many different networks of friends and contacts.

Already there are many initiatives to try and centralise the authentication details (OpenID being the most important) and social profiles (Facebook Connect being the most important here). If Google and Facebook can find a way to work together, this could be a done deal.

There are big privacy concerns that come with this, and thus it may continue to stumble, but one thing is clear: we want our information to go with us as we move around the web because who we are, and who we know, is becoming fundamentally important to what we want to find out.

E-books:

The sudden emergence of the Kindle as the top-selling product on Amazon in December 2009 caught a lot of people by surprise. As obvious as digital photography, as compelling as the iPod, e-books are a no-brainer if the devices work and the content is easily available. The Kindle - and competing devices - succeed in both these areas, and the time of the end of the paper book is upon us.

Costs are still an issue - as is the lack of a colour screen - but these will both be solved quickly, and I anticipate most people who have a bookcase with more than 100 books on it will have an e-book reader in their hands by this time next year.

Content goes commercial:

I have started thinking of Web 1.0 as “the stuff experts published for free” and Web 2.0 as “the stuff everyone else published for free”. The next big thing in content is the stuff people are going to publish for a cost.

Books are a great example of this. Google may find a way to digitise all the books in the world, but authors are not going to just give this content away in the same way they might have blogged for nothing. We have come to a point where people creating unique, valuable content have seen the world devalue that content as far as they are going to allow. They want to go back to commercial models we may all have thought we'd seen the end of.

Whether it's selling e-books or music online, or charging for access to news sites, this year will see the re-commercialisation of content. What's missing is an effective, simple payment system on the web.

Perhaps mobile devices (and networks) will provide some kind of answer for this, or perhaps the Mastercard and Visas of the world will launch innovative new online payment mechanisms. Whatever it is, I expect to be micro-paying for good quality content very soon.

On-demand entertainment:

Lastly, I think the entertainment industry in all its guises is undergoing a profound shift from broadcast to on-demand, and SA will experience this in 2010.

There are numerous big media players who are getting into this space (DSTV On-Demand being one) but even more simply than this, the iPhone will popularise the podcast; broadband will popularise on-demand radio stations and video (including the pirated sort); and e-book readers will allow for instant access to new magazines and books within seconds of the desire arising.

Advertisers will have to figure out ways to beat ad blockers and fast-forward buttons on all these devices to get the message to consumers who have a content choice exponentially greater than ever before. But for the consumer, this will be a paradise of colourful amusements only dreamed of hitherto.