That estimate also depends on Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) maintaining the higher level of monthly railage volumes to the terminal that have been evident since July.
The RBCT last got near the 70m ton mark in 2005 when it exported 69.2m tons of coal which was equivalent to 96% of the terminal's then installed capacity of 72m tons a year.
Coal exports plunged sharply after the 2005 record performance bottoming out at 61.1m tons during 2009 since when they have staged a gradual recovery to the 2012 export volume of 67.8m tons.
But during this period‚ the RBCT carried out the Phase-Five expansion which became effective from mid-2010 and gave the terminal an installed capacity of 91m tons.
The latest statistics for September show the RBCT shipped 5.57m tons of coal for a year-to-date cumulative total of 49.9m tons, which works out to an annualised figure of 66.8m tons.
This time last year‚ the RBCT had shipped 49.4m tons year-to-date giving an annualised target of 65.9m tons but the terminal finally managed to export 67.9m tons.
The reasons are that the exporters typically step up sales volumes during the last quarter of the year while the RBCT's rules for the year-end accounting cut-off frequently allow coal shipped during the first week of January to be added to the December total.
According to one coal industry source‚ "if things go well‚ the RBCT could ship 6.5m tons this month and 7m tons in November. That being the case you could see December shipments reaching 7.5m tons," the source said.
If delivered that would push total exports above 70m tons for the first time in the terminal's history.
Key variables are TFR's performance and the state of the international coal market where depressed prices have restrained sales so far this year.
After delivering a monthly average of 5.6m tons of coal up to June this year‚ TFR has upped its tonnages, carrying railing 6.3m tons in July and a record 6.9m tons in August. By end-September TFR had delivered a total of 53.2m tons which equates to an annualised target of 70.7m tons for this year.
According to an RBCT press release‚ " it is evident that the initiatives undertaken by TFR to improve the coal line efficiencies are yielding positive results. "
As a result‚ coal stocks held at the RBCT reached 5.5m tons at the end of September as TFR delivered the coal faster than the terminal was exporting it. In June stock levels at the terminal were only 2.8m tons.
In another welcome development‚ the RBCT has redesigned its monthly statistics release and is now providing a breakdown of export destinations.
These shows that‚ for September‚ 31% of the coal was exported to Eastern Asia - which includes China and Japan - while 28% went to Southern Asia which includes India.
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