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SABMiller beats forecasts as emerging markets lead growth

A stronger than expected performance by SABMiller plc in the six months ended September saw it regain favour among investors‚ who pushed the global brewing company's shares 4% higher to close at R499.40 last week.
Emerging markets boost SABMiller's growth. Image: SABMiller website
Emerging markets boost SABMiller's growth. Image: SABMiller website

BFollowing a strong run in the year to date‚ SABMiller's share price slid from a high of R518.89 on 26 September to a low of R473 in early October, which translated into a R65bn market capitalisation contraction over the two-week period.

Analysts attributed the sell-off to the stock's hard run this year‚ which lead to a correction triggered by negative international news‚ including the US government shutdown.

SABMiller's positive trading update on showed its revenue and beverage volume growth in the quarter and six months to September was boosted by emerging markets.

The company's chief executive Alan Clark said the group had achieved a strong performance across its African business and made good progress in building on its positions in Latin America‚ South Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.

In the first quarter to June‚ group revenue grew by 2% on a constant-currency and organic basis - which removes the effect of acquisitions and disposals. The first quarter's total beverage volumes on an organic basis were unchanged from the prior year.

Organic growth

However‚ the figures showed that with a rise in organic lager volumes‚ group net producer revenue in the second quarter grew by an improved 6% and group net producer revenue per hectolitre grew by 3%‚ both on an organic‚ constant currency basis.

Investec Securities investment analyst Anthony Geard said SABMiller's second-quarter results had comfortably beaten consensus forecasts.

Geard said the group's second-quarter performance was impressive in the context of what is likely to be another muted quarter for consumer staples.

"Emerging markets such as South Africa‚ the rest of Africa and China had led the growth‚" he said.

Momentum Wealth's portfolio manager Wayne McCurrie said while the trading update had exceeded expectations the group's share price remained over-valued and the market's positive reaction was unwarranted.

"SABMiller's stock was trading at a high price-earnings ratio of almost 30%‚" he said, adding that it was near the highest level it had ever been.

"Inherent in the price is sustained‚ material rand weakness over the past few years‚ which was unlikely to continue‚" McCurrie said.

SABMiller said the depreciation of key currencies against the dollar would adversely affect its interim results for the six months to September‚ which are expected to be released on 21 November.

McCurrie said the trading update vindicated SABMiller's continued push into emerging markets‚ where the company could charge higher prices for its premium beer offering.

Members of the Food and Allied Workers' Union have been on strike at South African Breweries since the end of September‚ although analysts say this has had little effect on SABMiller's share price.

Source: I-Net Bridge

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