SA's manufacturing production fell 6.0% in July from a 0.8% growth in June. The sector was the second biggest contributor to GDP.
"Our current tracking number for Q3 [for GDP] has fallen from 1.5% last week to just 0.8% after this number," said Attard Montalto.
Attard Montalto said that further downside surprises in manufacturing could rapidly push their estimate into negative territory, though their baseline was still that there would not be two negative quarters of growth in a row.
Nomura forecast that output would recover slightly in the coming months, but once lags had passed through, a prolonged period of manufacturing contraction through the end of this year would occur.
The latest manufacturing number was not likely to greatly influence the SA Reserve Bank's (SARB) interest rate decision later this month, Attard Montalto said. The bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would meet from September 20 to 22.
"We expect the MPC to look through it and the strikes as a temporary factor and be wary of the volatility of the series," he said.
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