Retail trade sales measured in constant (2012) prices rose by a more than expected 4.2% year-on-year (y/y) in November from a revised 1.4% (1.3%) y/y increase in October‚ Statistics SA figures showed on Wednesday (15 January).
"We are sceptical about the sustainability of the stronger growth as households continue to feel the squeeze of high and rising food and fuel prices‚ while credit health continues to deteriorate‚" ETM Analytics economist Jana le Roux said.
Retail trade sales were expected to have increased by 1.0% y/y‚ according to a survey of leading economists by I-Net Bridge. Forecasts among the nine economists polled ranged from 0.3% to 2.1%.
Measured in real terms‚ seasonally adjusted retail trade sales rose 1.2% between October and November following month-on-month changes of -0.3% in October and -0.7% in September.
Stats SA said general dealers and retailers in textiles‚ clothing‚ footwear and leather goods were the main contributors to the 4.2% increase in retail sales.
Other economists said the strong jump in retail sales could be attributed to a "return to normal" following strikes.
"The November growth performance merely reflects a rebound in retail sales‚ as workers returned to work and again received an income‚ following strike action in a number of industries in prior months‚" Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan said in a research note.
The highest annual growth rates were recorded for retailers in textiles‚ clothing‚ footwear and leather goods (9.0%); general dealers (7.1%); and retailers in hardware‚ paint and glass (5.6%)‚ reflecting consumer preference for cheaper items.
Seasonally adjusted retail trade sales increased by 0.1% in the three months ended November last year compared with the previous three months.
Stanlib chief economist Kevin Lings said consumer spending had been losing momentum for some time on a trend basis and was expected to remain under pressure over the coming months.
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