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The timing could not be worse. The sugar industry is in the midst of a major effort to diversify beyond traditional sugar production.
Through the Sugarcane Value Chain Master Plan, the industry is making significant progress in determining how sugarcane can be used to produce bioethanol, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable electricity, and other bio-based products.
These projects represent a hope for a brighter and more certain future for thousands of growers and workers whose livelihoods depend on sugarcane.
But that hope for the future is now under threat by sugar imported from countries where governments subsidise their industries. These imports do not benefit consumers. Subsidised sugar is typically sold at similar retail prices to South African sugar — the difference becomes profit for foreign importers.
The real cost is carried by local growers and rural economies. Every tonne of imported sugar costs South African growers about R7,600 in lost income, money that could have gone into wages, equipment, and investment in diversification projects that would secure the industry’s long-term future.
Diversification is not a slogan, but a survival strategy. South Africa’s sugar sector faces shrinking profit margins, rising input costs and unfair competition from foreign producers supported by state subsidies.
By using sugarcane to produce renewable fuels, energy, and bio-based products, the industry can open new markets, protect existing jobs, and create new ones in the process — building a more resilient and inclusive rural economy in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga.
The industry’s diversification plans are far-reaching. One of the most promising opportunities lies in sugarcane-based sustainable aviation fuel.
With the right investment and policy support, South Africa’s existing mills could produce more than 100 million litres of sustainable aviation fuels a year, expanding to 375 million litres as capacity grows.
This would open access to global low-carbon fuel markets that are growing rapidly under new international sustainability mandates.
Bioethanol production for transport fuel is another key opportunity. The industry could produce around 125 million litres a year, supporting energy security and creating up to 21,000 new jobs.
However, this potential remains locked without a mandatory blending policy that would allow bioethanol to enter the domestic fuel market. Similarly, by using sugarcane fibre waste, known as bagasse, for power generation, the industry could contribute around 700 MW of dependable renewable electricity to the national grid.
These are practical, evidence-based projects that can be implemented with the right policy framework. But all of them depend on one essential condition: a viable local sugar sector. As more growers exit the industry, the land under cane continues to shrink. If this continues, the feedstock base, the raw cane needed to make biofuels, SAF, and green electricity, will disappear.
South Africa’s sugar industry has already shown its commitment to building this future. It has invested in research and forged partnerships with both the public and private sectors.
Sugarcane is one of the world’s most efficient energy crops, and South Africa already has the infrastructure for sugar production and ethanol distillation.
With modest upgrades, many sugar mills could begin producing SAF-compatible bioethanol, turning waste into value and driving green industrialisation. SA Canegrowers have even researched and developed projects looking at the potential use of the juice extracted from raw sugarcane.
But there is a catch. South Africa needs a policy environment that would allow such new projects to take hold and grow.
With the right policy environment, the sugar industry could produce 125 million litres of bioethanol a year, generate 700 MW of renewable electricity, and supply 375 million litres of SAF to global aviation markets.
These industries could revitalise rural economies while supporting South Africa’s export ambitions and low-carbon growth targets.
The sector is ready to diversify, invest, and contribute to the country’s green transition. But without decisive action to stop the flood of subsidised imports, the foundation for that transformation will erode - and with it, the livelihoods of tens of thousands of South Africans.