Will Trump be more Mandela or more Zuma, and what are the likely ramifications for tourism in Africa?

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If President Barack Obama is added to the equation, then the comparison between the US and South Africa becomes even more interesting. For many, Obama is seen as a very human, caring president, winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009 and creating Obamacare offering healthcare for all. Through this caring stance he ended the 2008 recession and created 13.3 million jobs during his presidency. Mandela, through his caring stance, (another winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, in 1993) gained international respect and opened South Africa to the rest of the world with his positive message of hope and the future.

President Jacob Zuma came to power on a negative message, but unfortunately has not changed the political conspiracy he spoke of. The man in the street is no better off, although some in society have clearly benefited. Let us hope President (elect) Donald Trump, who’s campaigning stance was similarly negative, brings more Americans with him on the road to greater prosperity and the message he gave during his victory speech of governing for all Americans becomes his mantra.

Putting aside his influence on the US, how will a Trump presidency impact on tourism in Africa?

Investor uncertainty

Investors like certainty and as his will be a unique style of leadership, until we know what to expect from him, there is likely to be short-term uncertainty. This uncertainty may well deter tourists from taking long haul trips and as such, the number of high-spending American guests may fall. In the longer term, if he sticks with the policy of tax cuts he mentioned during his campaign, well that could increase the number of potential US visitors to the continent.

The value of the US dollar

The US dollar is the second currency in many African countries, so there is likely to be a short-term impact, given the likely uncertainty on the value of the dollar. However, for currency traders, where else do they invest? After Brexit, the Euro and Sterling have been pretty weak, and the economies of China and Japan are not particularly attractive, so there are limited options. For this reason alone the US dollar may not lose much value.

Trade agreements

Trump promised to renegotiate trade agreements during his campaign. This could have an adverse impact on African exporters who stand to lose a slice of the US market. As one door closes, another opens so it may encourage producers to enter agreements with other emerging markets and promote more trade agreements within the African continent.

Environmental concerns

Perhaps the area of biggest concern for Africa is environmentally. If Trump does pull America from recently signed environmental agreements and the fight against global warming is set back a few years, Africa will be one of the areas of the globe worst affected. At the start of the South African summer, we have increased water restrictions and a fear of drought; food prices are soaring due to poor harvests from previous years, and if this continues or is exacerbated, the impact on African nations will be substantial.

An opportunity for Africa

Concerns have been raised about how inclusive a Trump-led America may be, but this could be viewed as a great opportunity for Africa. If African Americans feel unhappy or unwelcome in the US, they should be encouraged to move back ‘home’. After all, actor Samuel L Jackson threatened to move to South Africa should Trump win (and Wesgro’s Tim Harris amusingly offered to smooth his transition to Cape Town). Diaspora have had a positive impact on the economies of several African countries already, so governments should make it as easy as possible for these skilled and educated people to return to their heritage and boost the social and economic futures of their countries.

In short, it will be several months until we know what type of president Donald Trump will become, but in the meantime rather than waiting to see the impact on the African tourism, industry let us drive the agenda for our benefit. Africa is open, it offers unique experiences and warm and welcoming people, come and join us for an unforgettable trip; you may not want to go home!

*The views expressed herein are solely those of the author.