SA consumer confidence slips - MasterCard index

The index shows that South Africans are once again less confident than they were both six months and a year ago.

The survey recorded an overall decrease from 67.3 a year ago, to 59.8 six months ago to a current score of 58.6. This is the lowest score recorded since the survey was first conducted in 2004, and is below South Africa's historical average of 81.4 over the past three years.

Released twice a year, the index is based on a survey, which measures consumer confidence on prevailing expectations in the market for the next six months based on five economic indicators: Economy, Employment, Stock market, Regular income and Quality of life.

The index score is calculated with zero as the most pessimistic, 100 as most optimistic and 50 as neutral.

The survey was conducted from 15 March to 12 April 2010 and involved 10 503 consumers from 24 markets across the Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa (APMEA) region.

Encouraging but frustrating

According to Dr Roelof Botha, independent economic advisor, "The latest survey results are both encouraging yet slightly frustrating.

"On the one hand, it is clear that heightened socio-political tension in the country, most notably through labour unrest, combined with significant job losses over the past two years, continue to place a damper on consumer confidence.

"On the other hand, however, the index has not deviated by much over the past six months and remains in positive territory, which is a reflection of the return to a new economic growth phase that is rapidly gathering momentum.

"Furthermore, during the initial stages of an economic recovery, it is not uncommon for a consumer survey to exhibit only marginal deviations from the immediately prior survey period," Botha explains.

Indicator decreases

South Africa's slightly optimistic score of 58.6 is lower than the 59.8 that the country scored in the previous six months, as three of the five indicators saw decreases: Employment, Quality of Life and the Stock Market.

Employment and Quality of Life decreased marginally, scoring 53.2 and 55.8 respectively, while the most notable decrease in optimism came from the Stock Market, which saw a significant decrease of 7.4 points, to a current score of 55.2.

Regular Income, which is the most optimistic of the five metrics, increased slightly from 66.8 to 68.3, while a smaller growth was seen in the Economy category - from 59.0 to 60.4.

Stock market indicator decline

"It is interesting to note that the Stock Market indicator was the only indicator to record significant change in the latest survey," says Botha.

"The decline in the Stock Market indicator confirms that respondents are well-informed.

"Following a surge in the all-share index (Alsi) of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) of more than 16% between September last year and March 2010, most share prices started recording modest losses during the second quarter of 2010," said Botha.