South Africa’s FMCG market is still growing, but finding that growth is becoming more complex. Financially constrained consumers are changing where, how and what they buy, while retailers and brands are increasingly competing beyond their traditional channels.
Nedbank Chief Economist, Nickey Weimar. Image supplied
That was one of the key themes to emerge from the 2026 Trade Intelligence (Ti) Retail Conference, held in partnership with Nedbank in Johannesburg earlier in September.
The event brought together leaders from across retail, FMCG, technology and financial services to examine the changing trading environment and where businesses can still find opportunities.
Growth remains positive, but momentum is slowing
The consumer environment remains challenging. According to Nicky Weimar, chief economist at Nedbank, consumer spending and retail are still growing, but momentum has weakened during 2026.
“We still have growth. We still have a growing industry. We still have growing consumer spending. But we’ve seen a very clear loss of momentum.”
Trade Intelligence sees a similar pattern in FMCG. The organisation estimates that the market grew by 6.2% in 2025, against food inflation of 4.2%, pointing to underlying volume or real growth of around 2%.
But that growth is becoming increasingly uneven.
“People are often looking for the big untapped market or the big growth opportunity,” said Andrea Slabber, insights lead at Trade Intelligence. “But what we are increasingly seeing are smaller pockets of growth, which require businesses to look much more closely at where opportunities exist.”
Trade Intelligence Insights Lead Andrea Slabber and Retail Analyst Tshego Modise. Image supplied
The battle for growth is crossing traditional channels
One of the most significant shifts is the blurring of traditional retail boundaries.
Over the past decade, South Africa's six major corporate retail groups have expanded their collective footprint by around 4,000 stores to more than 11,000. At the same time, retailers have moved into adjacent categories and formats, including health and beauty, clothing and pet products.
The result is a more crowded competitive landscape.
Quick-service restaurant brands are moving further into retail and at-home consumption, while supermarkets are strengthening their ready-to-eat and foodservice offerings. Health, wellness and beauty products are appearing in convenience and other non-traditional channels.
For businesses, this creates new revenue opportunities – but it also means competitors can increasingly enter their territory.
“While you’re spotting growth somewhere, you’re actually biting into someone else’s growth and someone is probably looking at your space to grab a bit of yours,” said Nicola Allen, senior analyst at Trade Intelligence.
Image supplied
The 'Uber customer' is changing convenience
Changing consumer expectations are also reshaping convenience retail.
Domnick Sipho Nkhatu, head of convenience at bp, pointed to the emergence of the “Uber customer” – consumers who increasingly expect products and services immediately.
“The future is now. The Uber customer has arrived. Believe you me, they don’t want it tomorrow. They want it now.”
That expectation is extending beyond consumer retail. Mark Cotton, Head of B2B Ecommerce at Shoprite Group, said the boundaries between B2B and B2C commerce are also moving closer together as business customers increasingly expect digital convenience.
However, he noted that wholesale customers still have distinct needs around volumes, service and relationships.
Precision is becoming a growth strategy
A recurring message from the conference was that growth can no longer be pursued with a one-size-fits-all approach.
Whether in convenience, informal trade or B2B, businesses need a clearer understanding of specific customers, locations and purchasing occasions.
Retailers are increasingly segmenting stores and promotions according to the communities and shopping missions they serve. Demand in informal trade can differ significantly by location and even at different points in the month.
Technology and data can help identify these opportunities, but speakers cautioned against treating either as a solution in isolation.
Vincent Viviers, e-commerce, innovation and digital transformation executive at Pick n Pay, said the starting point should remain the shopper.
“You’ve got to put the customer at the heart of this.”
He added that customer reach needs to be supported by data, transparency and measurable outcomes to determine whether investments are genuinely creating value.
Image supplied
Innovation still depends on execution
Artificial intelligence, digital commerce and retail media featured prominently at the conference, but speakers repeatedly returned to the importance of getting the fundamentals right.
Rudi Nienaber, data and technology executive at Smollan, cautioned against developing an AI strategy separately from wider business objectives.
“Don’t start with an AI strategy; start with your business strategy.”
Cotton made a similar point from an operational perspective, stressing that “the fundamentals still apply”. Before adding new technology or digital experiences, businesses still need to accurately describe and price products, process payments and deliver orders reliably.
Michael Smollan, chief brand experience officer at Smollan, said the traditional separation between marketing and sales is also becoming less relevant.
“Getting chosen and getting bought are one job, not two departments.”
Smollan Chief Brand Experience Officer, Michael Smollan. Image supplied
Smaller opportunities, bigger competitive pressures
For Slabber, the changing market requires businesses to combine broader strategic thinking with closer observation of what is happening on the ground.
“In addition to looking at global examples, I really recommend all the stakeholders to do trade visits, walk the trade, immerse themselves in the trade, because that’s where you’ll see these very interesting shifts in dynamics,” she said.
The message from the Ti Retail Conference was clear: South Africa's FMCG market is not short of growth opportunities, but those opportunities are becoming more fragmented and harder to capture.
As channel boundaries loosen and competition intensifies, success will increasingly depend on identifying the right customer opportunity, executing consistently and adapting quickly.
Prithivan Pillay, head of client value propositions at Nedbank Business and Commercial Banking, said the conference remains an important platform for industry engagement.
“Trade Intelligence delivered an exceptionally valuable programme, bringing together the insights, perspectives and conversations that matter to the FMCG retail sector. As one of the industry’s most respected platforms, the conference provides an important opportunity to engage with the challenges and opportunities shaping the sector.”
For FMCG businesses, the next phase of growth may not come from one major untapped market. Instead, it is likely to come from finding – and executing against – many smaller opportunities before competitors do.
