Saldanha exports slump in February: TNPA

Although 2012 is a leap year, there were still only 29 days in February compared with 31 days in January, so ports had 6.5% less time to load goods.

That is why the year-on-year (y/y) comparison makes more sense, but weather can also disrupt port operations such as the recent Cyclone Irina.

The y/y change in February was a 9.4% drop to 10.651 million tons (Mt) after January's 28.1% y/y surge to 13.513 Mt. The high y/y growth rate is in part due to poor weather in January 2011 that disrupted port operations.

Bulk exports rose by 6.6% in 2011 to a record 141.493 Mt after a 9.0% jump in 2010. The y/y increase in the first two months of 2012 was 8.3%.

The slower growth last year was in part due to weather-related disruptions as well as cable theft on the Mpumalanga-Richards Bay coal line, which has resulted in derailments and other disruptions to traffic.

The coal line was closed for 20 days in May and June 2011 to do necessary maintenance and in October exports out of Richards Bay exceeded 8 Mt or an annualised 96 Mt, but this eased to 7.3 Mt in November before rising to 7.5 Mt in December and 7.7 Mt or an annualised 92 Mt in January 2012. In February 2012 Richards Bay shipped 7 Mt and shipments for the first two months are up 22.8% y/y.

Last year shipments out of Richards Bay, which are mostly coal, disappointed with a 1.4% rise to 76 Mt in 2011, while mostly iron ore shipments out of Saldanha Bay increased by 12.3% to 53.3 Mt. In January 2012 the y/y increases were 34.4% and 25.0% respectively, indicating that demand for these commodities remains very strong despite the global growth concerns.

The star performer last year was agricultural and manganese exports out of the other South African ports, such as Durban and Port Elizabeth, which jumped by 18.7% to 12.2 Mt, but in January 2012 there was a small 1.8% y/y decline to 0.8 Mt, while February 2012 saw a larger 8.5% y/y decline.

The majority of bulk exports go to Asia as China, India and Japan require South African coal and iron ore to feed their steel mills and thermal coal power stations.

As nuclear power stations in Japan have reduced their output after the March 2011 earthquake, Japan requires more coal to burn in their thermal power stations.