Research Analysis South Africa

Poor euro retail sales trigger fears of recovery rut

BRUSSELS, BELGIUM: A pre-Christmas fall in retail sales across the euro countries caused flutters among experts on Thursday, 7 January 2010, who worried that recovery prospects could run into a rut.

Disappointing figures proved a setback amid a generally positive run of data, which underlined the fragility of confidence indicators published simultaneously by Brussels.

Retail sales in the 16 nations using the shared currency fell by 1.2% in November compared to the previous month and by 4.0% compared to one year earlier, the European Union's Eurostat data agency said.

The figures across the 27-nation bloc as a whole, which includes Britain and eastern industrial powerhouse Poland, saw a 0.8% drop over the previous month and 2.1% on a 12-month basis.

The data "raises concern that muted consumer spending could hold back eurozone recovery," said Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight, for whom an "appreciably" lower fall for food and drink sales suggested that "discretionary" spending is particularly weak at such critical periods for the economy.

He cited an "ongoing underlying softness" in three-month volumes and warned that "consumers are clearly still reluctant to splash out."

The release coincided with European business and consumer confidence firming in December for a ninth month running, marked by a big jump in key recession straggler Britain.

The European Commission's economic sentiment indicator for the eurozone rose to 91.3 points in December, up 2.5 points from one month earlier and better than a consensus of analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

The index hit a record low 64.6 points in March.

For the 27-nation EU as a whole, economic confidence was also up, and in Britain, which went into reverse between October and November, the index rose by a whopping 8.2 points.

France Italy, Germany and Spain, where some experts fear a double-dip recession, were also on an upward trend, although Poland hit reverse.

The improvement was due to higher confidence mainly in industry, the commission said.

But Clemente De Lucia of BNP Paribas said the survey contained "worrying signs."

He noted: "Employment expectations in both manufacturing and services sectors increased only moderately, remaining at very low level by historical standards.

"This combined with rising inflation... will limit private consumption over next quarters." A separate monthly business climate indicator for the eurozone also improved in December, hitting minus 1.22 points, up from minus 1.53 points.

Source: AFP

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