Crime Atlas provides first holistic view of crime in SA

Over the last decade, selected police precincts in South Africa have continued to bear the burden of certain violent and property related crimes in South Africa. Honeydew and Sandton in the City of Johannesburg remain in the top ranked precincts for house robbery while the precinct of Johannesburg has kept the top rank for business robbery for the last 10 years. Honeydew is further burdened with its ranking rapidly increasing for street/public robbery. Booysens and Jeppe have remained at the top of the ranking when it comes to carjacking. The severity of carjacking in Booysens is such, that when compared to other crimes committed in the precinct and nationally, it has five times more carjackings.

The townships of Nyanga, Khayelitsha, Harare and Gugulethu in the City of Cape Town remained in the top ranked precincts when it comes to murder. Some of these precincts have also seen their rankings skyrocket when it comes to street/public robbery (Harare), house robbery (Nyanga), business robbery (Khayelitsha) and carjacking (Nyanga). In the nearby precinct of Mitchells Plain street/public robbery has continued to impact on residents for the last decade.

The above reflects a concentration of these violent and property crimes in these selected precincts over a period of time. However, it does not mean that other precincts are not equally burdened by these crimes. For example, the number of murders has worsened in both Inanda (ranked 2nd) and Umlazi (ranked 3rd) precincts in the City of Ethekweni over the last 10 years. Although the numbers of murders are highest mostly in metropolitan precincts, seven precincts in rural Eastern Cape (Cofimvaba, Willowvale, Engcobo, Cala, Centane, Lady Frere and Ntabankulu) have six-seven times more murders in their precincts compared to the national situation.

A key story coming out of the media from the SAPS and research organisations with the release of the 2015/16 statistics is that murder is not a policeable crime and as a consequence, the police are not able to do much about it. The rhetoric is that murder is a consequence of socio-economic conditions and that it is the responsibility of other government departments to address the problem. The Crime Atlas shows that over the last 10 years a number of police precincts have significantly reduced the number of murders and improved their ranking against other precincts. Many of these precincts were Presidential stations or formed part of Operation Crackdown. To therefore say that the SAPS cannot bring about a decrease in the number of murders is incorrect and continuing this rhetoric provides an escape route for politicians, government and especially the SAPS in not doing their job.

The picture is also not all bleak, with many police precincts showing dramatic reductions in crime and significant improvements in their ranking over the decade. In the City of Tshwane, Garsfontein police precinct has seen the largest improvement in its ranking when it comes to house robbery and attempted murder. This is attributed to factors such as the collaboration between residents, Community Police Forums (CPF) and the SAPS but interventions implemented by local communities have also contributed. While Booysens remains the carjacking capital of South Africa, there has been an improvement in its position when dealing with street/public robbery.

In the precincts of Randburg, Umbilo, Bramley, Sandton and Pietermaritzburg their positions have improved dramatically over the decade in dealing with business robbery. The situation with carjackings in Norwood, Kwadukuza, Durban Central and Empangeni has improved to such an extent that they have significantly improved their rank positions. The number of murders has declined in the township of Esikhawini, Moroka, Motherwell, Katlehong and Temba over the decade and consequently, they have seen the largest improvement in ranks of all precincts in the country.

With the results of the local municipality elections still fresh in people’s minds and the release of the 2015/2016 crime statistics, the ruling parties in these metropolitan councils and the SAPS need to be asking some key questions. Why have these precincts consistently remained in the top ranked position for 10 years when it comes to these crimes? What lessons can be learnt from precincts that have seen such significant improvements in their crime situations? And most importantly, what are the ruling parties going to do about these unacceptable crime trends?

To answer these questions requires access to detailed crime statistics at a police precinct level using different indicators. This is required to analyse the crime trends and understand particular patterns and the causal factors association with particular crimes. The releasing of the crime statistics by the SAPS purely as numbers per police precinct and reported in the media as national or provincial aggregates, and showing annual trends in the crime statistics, does not go far enough in providing the public with an understanding of the crime situation in South Africa.

AfricaScope, in conjunction with Dr Chris De Kock, the former Head of the Crime Information Analysis Centre (CIAC) in the SAPS, have produced an Atlas on crime in South Africa. The Atlas uses maps and tables to provide crime statistics for 2014/2015 at a police precinct level. By doing this the Atlas better informs ordinary citizens, business decision makers and government officials about the extent and levels of crime at a police precinct level in the country. The crime statistics are also reported as the numbers of crimes, crimes per 100 000 people, year-on-year trends and long term trends going back to 2004. The crime statistics are also represented as a Location Quotient, which compares the numbers of a particular crime to the all crimes in a precinct and then compares them to the national situation. This indicates whether a particular crime in a precinct is above or below the national average or whether the numbers are above or below expectation.

The intention of the Atlas is to make citizens more aware of the crime situation in their areas so that they can be empowered to work with the SAPS in tackling the problem. Its purpose is also to mobilise the public to really do something if their police precinct continues to remain in the top ranked position for certain crimes (e.g. Nyanga for murder, Booysens for carjacking and Honeydew for house robbery). The greatest value of the Crime Atlas is that it provides a comprehensive picture of crime in South Africa for the first time.

Dr de Kock in his submission to the Khayelitsha Commission of Inquiry emphasised that the crime situation in the Greater Khayelitsha area (Khayelitsha, Site B, Harare and Lingelethu West) is a consequence of no intelligence led or problem orientated policing. This situation is equally the case in many of the precincts described above. He further adds that station commanders at the precinct level have not been held accountable for doing a proper analysis of crime patterns in combination with socio-economic factors and using this information to operationalise and execute plans to reduce crime in their areas.

The Atlas provides for the first time crime statistics in a format that allows ordinary citizens, business leaders and safety and security structures opportunity to fully understand the crime patterns and hold the SAPS and government tiers accountable in bringing about a reduction in crime. With the release of the 2015/2016 crime statistics there has been a flurry of media releases about the year on year trends and not even a week later, it has disappeared. It will only be once these statistics are analysed using different indicators and presented in a new release of the Atlas that the full benefit of the crime statistics at a precinct level will be seen.

A copy of the Atlas, maps and tables can be downloaded at:
http://www.africascope.net/products-and-services/south-africa-data/crime-profiles

For more information contact:

Craig Schwabe: ten.epocsacirfa@ebawhcs.giarc
Dr Chris de Kock: az.oc.bewm@kcokedsirhc
Bob Currin: ten.epocsacirfa@nirruc.bob
AfricaScope
Agri-Hub Building, Block C, 477 Witherite Rd
The Willows X82
Tel: +27 12 004 0105
www.africascope.net