Survey shows gloomy outlook for SA job seekers in 2012

The net employment outlook of -1% represents a slight decrease of four percentage points both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

Although eight out of 10 employers expect to keep their existing workforces intact during the first three months of the year, the percentage of employers who indicate they will reduce payrolls in the first quarter of 2012 exceeds the percentage of employers who intend to add staff, the survey shows.

"The uncertainty of a resolution to the European debt crises seems to be one of the prime reasons for slow growth in employment," said Peter Winn, MD of Manpower SA.

"Fewer sales for South African companies"

"With Europe being one of South Africa's primary export destinations, continuing market instability in the Eurozone means fewer sales for South African companies. A positive resolution to the issues facing Europe may see a positive increase in employment predictions next year.

"Furthermore, lower than expected growth figures and projections for the country have affected hiring plans for many companies.

"Further volatility in Africa, and mixed messages from government regarding nationalisation of mines and uncompensated redistribution of land, has made investors and employers cautious when estimating future international investment and growth.

"Heightened strike action over 2011 has also seen employers holding back on increasing employment as they take a 'wait-and-see' approach to the attitudes of unions for 2012," he noted.

"All regions show weaker hiring plans"

At a provincial level the adjusted data for the Manpower survey shows that employers in the Western Cape anticipate the strongest hiring plans for the first quarter of 2012, with an outlook of +2%.

Kwazulu-Natal and the Free State expect negative workforce growth with net employment outlook of -5% and -4%, respectively. Compared to Q4 2011 all regions show weaker hiring plans, the most notable being the decline of six percentage points in both Kwazulu-Natal and Gauteng, followed by a five percentage point decrease in the Free State.

The outlook declines year-over-year in four of the five regions with the most notable decline reported by employers in the Free State where the outlook drops 13 percentage points.

Employers in six of the 10 industry sectors expect to grow staffing levels during Q1 2012. The most optimistic hiring plans are reported by finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector employers, with a net employment outlook of +4%. Cautiously optimistic hiring plans are also evident in the mining and quarrying sector and the wholesale and retail trade sector; employers in both report net employment outlooks of +3% although both outlooks decline by moderate levels in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons.

"Market uncertainty"

Meanwhile, negative headcount growth is forecast in four sectors. Construction sector employers report a downbeat outlook of -4%, while in the manufacturing sector, uncertain hiring plans are reflected in an outlook of -2%. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring prospects weaken in eight of the 10 industry sectors, with the most noteworthy decline of seven percentage points in the transport, storage and communication sector.

"Market uncertainty around the world continues to hamper South African employment growth. Initiatives that would otherwise have had positive influences on employment, such as international entrants to the country and government job creation schemes, have not seemed to deliver the outcomes previously anticipated," concluded Winn.

"Until there are more positive signs, employers will continue to throttle their hiring pace and add employees only when they absolutely have to."

The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 13 March 2012 to report hiring expectations for the second quarter of 2012.