The cost of globally traded food commodities rose in September as weather concerns and transport disruptions added pressure to supplies, with cereal and sugar prices recording the strongest increases.
Source: ©Oleksandr Boiko via
123RFThe FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% above its level a year earlier, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
FAO chief economist Maximo Torero said disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea, combined with climate shocks, were putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities.
“If sustained, these pressures will soon pass through to consumer food prices, especially in food and energy import dependent countries,” Torero said.
Cereals take the hit
The cereal price index increased 5.1% from August and was 17.2% higher than in September 2025.
Wheat prices rose 6.3% month on month, with logistical constraints in the Black Sea region and dry conditions in parts of North America ahead of sowing adding pressure.
Maize prices increased 5.6%, reflecting concerns about US yields, reduced export availability from Brazil and disruptions to Black Sea trade. Uncertainty around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also supported prices for biofuel feedstocks such as maize.
The all rice price index rose 1.4%, driven by higher Indica quotations amid weather concerns and seasonally tighter supplies.
Sugar outlook also tightens
Sugar prices increased 6.1% from August as expectations grew that global supplies could tighten during the 2026/27 season.
FAO pointed to lower expected production in Thailand, below-normal rainfall affecting crop prospects in India and strengthening El Niño conditions, as well as heavy rain in Brazil's Centre-South growing region.
The area planted to sugar beet in the European Union has also declined, adding to concerns over the global supply outlook.
Vegetable oil prices increased 0.9% during September, with palm oil prices supported by strong global import demand and concerns about dry weather affecting production in Southeast Asia.
Meat prices moved in the opposite direction, with the meat price index falling 1.1% as abundant export supplies pushed down pig and poultry meat prices. Dairy prices edged down 0.1%.
Harvest still near record
Despite the pressure on prices and trade, FAO's latest outlook does not point to a global cereal production collapse.
World cereal production in 2026 is forecast at 2.979 billion tonnes, down 2.1% from 2025 but still the second-largest harvest on record.
The forecast includes an upward revision for wheat production to 813.9 million tonnes, supported by improved weather conditions in Australia.
That increase is more than offset by lower expectations for coarse grains, now forecast at 1.612 billion tonnes, amid reduced yield prospects in the European Union and United States due to hot and dry weather.
Rice production is forecast at 552.5 million tonnes, with weaker prospects in India, largely because of poorly distributed monsoon rains, outweighing improved forecasts for Japan and Nepal.
Trade faces transport constraints
Global cereal trade is forecast to fall 3.5% from the record 2025/26 level to 505.8 million tonnes.
Wheat and maize exports are expected to decline more than previously forecast, largely because of constrained shipping routes through the Black Sea and limited alternative transport capacity.
International rice trade is forecast to fall 2.2% in 2026 before recovering by 1.7% in 2027.
The transport constraints add another layer of uncertainty for agricultural markets, particularly where producers and buyers depend on established export routes to move large volumes of grain.
The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also highlighted elevated freight rates, firmer fertiliser markets and continuing logistical disruptions as factors contributing to a more uncertain market environment.
El Niño adds uncertainty
The strengthening El Niño is creating another risk for production, particularly rice in South and Southeast Asia.
According to the latest AMIS Market Monitor, rice yields globally are typically 1.0% to 1.5% below their expected trend during El Niño events. Wheat and maize yields are generally close to normal, while soybean yields are often 1.5% to 2.0% above trend.
FAO noted that stronger El Niño events tend to produce more predictable yield outcomes, while weaker events can result in greater variability.
For agricultural markets, the combination of weather uncertainty, constrained transport routes and higher freight and input costs means that even a near-record global harvest is not necessarily translating into a stable market environment.
