The prospect of another severe El Niño is putting agricultural drought risk firmly back on the agenda, with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization forecasting a more than 50% probability of agricultural drought across South Africa and other parts of southern Africa.
The most recent El Niño cycle, in 2023/24, left 61 million people in need of assistance, placing additional pressure on livestock, water systems and pasturelands and pushing more than 8 million people into food insecurity.
According to Agrimark managing director Arno Abeln, one of the most important lessons from previous El Niño cycles is that proactive planning remains one of the most effective tools farmers have for managing uncertainty.
“While the severity and regional impact of the 2026 El Niño event cannot be predicted with complete accuracy, farmers can take proactive steps by analysing historical data, understanding and forecasting their requirements and investing in the appropriate infrastructure,” says Abeln.
He believes water management, irrigation and water storage capacity, revisiting animal feed requirements and access to the right agricultural inputs will play a key role in helping farmers manage uncomfortable periods.
Region-specific patterns, trends and approaches
He says the impact of El Niño is likely not to be uniform. “South Africa's agricultural sector is incredibly diverse, and the impact of changing weather patterns varies considerably between regions and farming operations.
"Through our work with farmers across KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape, we see first-hand that every farming enterprise has its own production requirements and climatic considerations,” he says.
“Fruit farmers in the Western Cape may require more irrigation support, and orchards may require more netting, while farmers in the Northern Cape may need to prioritise animal feed to ensure livestock continue to get the same level of nutrition during drier months,” he explains.
Differences extend beyond geography to the type of farming operation. As an example, he says in pasture-based dairy farming, heat stress in higher temperatures can have a measurable impact on productivity. “Factors such as temperature, walking distances and terrain can all influence dairy cows’ productivity. Even small changes in environmental conditions can have measurable effects on milk production and animal welfare.”
As a result, livestock farmers should review their feed strategies well in advance of drier conditions, as weather conditions can impact both animal nutrition and productivity.
Water management becomes increasingly strategic
“Water management is central to agricultural decision-making. Irrigation systems, water storage capacity and the efficient use of available resources are critical considerations, particularly when farmers are preparing for periods of reduced or less predictable rainfall,” says Abeln.
Abeln says around 70% of Agrimark's footprint is focused on South Africa's water-intensive farming regions, which mitigates – to some extent – the impact of El Niño.
“Many of these customers are less reliant on rainfall because they farm using established irrigation infrastructure and water management systems,” says Abeln, adding that water storage becomes a key focus during dry periods. Agrimark’s historical sales data shows that demand for 10,000, 15,000 and 20,000 litre water tanks grows before dry periods.
Precision farming supports improved decision-making
Abeln says the agricultural sector is undergoing a significant shift towards data-driven decision-making, with precision farming helping farmers improve efficiency and optimise the use of resources.
“Agriculture is becoming increasingly science-based. Farmers are learning that understanding what is happening beneath the surface through soil analysis allows them to make more informed decisions and apply inputs like plant nutrition more precisely.”
Data, says Abeln, should be leveraged during periods of extreme weather – but ideally, should form part of a farmer’s planning three to six months ahead, rather than as a response once conditions have already changed.
He says increasing weather variability makes long-term planning and access to reliable agricultural expertise important.
“Access to reliable information is becoming just as important as access to inputs. Farmers who combine data, planning and expert advice are often better able to manage risk and adapt to changing conditions.”
“We remain committed to supporting farmers through this period by providing the knowledge, products and solutions needed to make informed decisions,” concludes Abeln.
