South African farmers will need to understand market cycles, plan ahead and invest in the right technology and equipment to remain competitive as pressures on the agricultural sector increase, according to speakers at the annual producers’ seminar held during the 92nd Swartland Show in Moorreesburg in the Western Cape.
The seminar was co-hosted by Agrimark, the agri-lifestyle retailer and part of JSE-listed KAL Group, together with Grain SA, Nedbank and other partners. Titled “Navigating the challenges of a changing environment”, the session examined market trends, farm investment, food-chain competitiveness and how businesses can respond to changing conditions.
The trend is your friend
Professor Johan Willemse, an independent economist, urged farmers to understand the cycles and trends shaping their businesses, plan ahead and secure the resources needed to respond to change.
“You must have a strategy to manage your risks. Change is not something farmers should fear or try to avoid. The opportunity is to make money out of change; to do things differently and to innovate,” said Willemse. “But you have to understand the environment you are operating in. If you understand the cycles and the trends, you can make better decisions about your business.”
He encouraged farmers to distinguish between a normal cycle and longer-term downward trends, saying the two require different responses.
“The headlines say that we are to expect a Super El Niño, however, it’s important to note that El Niño cycles are normal part of agriculture. They shift rainfall patterns, affecting different parts of the world in different ways, and can have an impact across a wide range of agricultural products,” he said.
Willemse said farmers should consider where their commodities sit within these broader cycles. He pointed to canola, sheep and wool as being on an upward trend, while wheat may be facing a downward trend.
Data from Red Meat Industry Services show that the lamb price per kilogram strengthened in 2026, remaining above levels recorded in both 2025 and 2024. By August 2026, the price was around R111/kg, compared with approximately R106/kg in the same period in 2025 and R89/kg in 2024.
Willemse also said the South African wool price had increased by about 60% year on year as at August 2026.
Against this backdrop, wheat farmers may want to consider whether diversification has a role to play in their farming businesses.
“Farmers need to recognise that they need to adapt and change, even though this is difficult.”
Competitiveness requires investment
Willemse said farmers must budget for and invest in new technology.
“Farmers have to ask themselves a very simple question: how are you going to stay competitive?” said Willemse. “The tools you use are part of that. You need to reduce your inputs and costs while increasing your yield and quality, and that means investing in the technology and equipment that will help you do that. Old tools are not going to make you competitive in today’s market.”
Arno Abeln, MD of Agrimark, said the business is positioned to support farmers as they navigate changing market conditions. This includes access to finance, agricultural machinery through partnerships with equipment brands such as New Holland and Smith Power Equipment, and professional services aimed at helping farmers make operational decisions.
“We believe that having the right tools in place is an important part of being able to adapt, improve efficiency and remain competitive as conditions change,” said Abeln.
Willemse also stressed that competitiveness requires farmers to look beyond the immediate production cycle and plan for the future.
“Do not wait for machinery or other critical tools to fail before considering how to replace them. Instead, budget for equipment replacement and investment over a three-year period, with cash flow and liquidity incorporated into the planning process.”
He added that in good years, farmers should use stronger periods in the cycle to build reserves rather than assuming favourable conditions will continue indefinitely.
Strengthening the food value chain
Tjaart Kruger, CEO of Tiger Brands, said strengthening the food value chain is critical to maintaining competitiveness.
South Africa's food security, affordability and economic growth depend on a commercially sustainable and internationally competitive food value chain in which farmers and food manufacturers collaborate, invest for the long term and build resilience against future shocks.
“South African producers are competing not only against one another, but against products from around the world. We need to collaborate across the value chain to improve economic returns and competitiveness, rather than trying to solve these challenges in isolation,” said Kruger.
He pointed to Koo’s locally produced white beans as an example, noting that they compete on supermarket shelves with cheaper beans imported from other markets.
“We also need to work together to ensure South African wheat is competitive. For this, the development of the right seed genetics and quality is particularly important,” said Kruger.
At the event, Dirk Strydom, managing director of Nampo, noted that Grain SA has approved 10 cultivars that could increase yields of more than 10%. He described the availability of these cultivars, with their improved genetics, as good news for getting better genetics on stream.
Building resilience through change
Mark Watt, partner at business consultancy Heidrick & Struggles, also addressed how businesses can outperform their competitors.
He introduced the Meta framework – mobilise, execute, transform with agility – as a way of thinking about how organisations can respond to changing conditions while remaining focused on performance.
“Importantly, we have seen time and time again how resilient South African farmers are, and resilience is important to remaining competitive in a changing environment. Resilience is more than getting through it: It is emerging from disruption stronger, smarter and more capable than before,” concluded Watt.
