The World Meteorological Organization says the current El Niño is set to become a very strong event that will almost certainly last until February 2027. The South African Weather Service also expects the chances of below-normal rainfall to grow towards mid-summer, with temperatures very likely to be above normal.
Of course, this doesn't mean every farm in the country is heading for disaster. A strong El Niño doesn't automatically bring severe drought to every region. It’s also worth noting that farmers in many areas actually go into this year’s season in better shape than they were in 2015.
El Niño is a risk you plan for, not a guarantee that things will go wrong. The question to ask is whether your farming business is positioned to handle a more difficult season if it does materialise.
Here are six practical steps to make sure you can do that:
Draw up three cash-flow budgets: one for a normal season, one for a weaker season and one for a severe dry year. The point isn't to try and guess which will happen, but to see when money would start running short in each scenario, so you can plan ahead.
It's much better to spot that problem now than in the middle of summer. The earlier you see it, the more options you have.
A dry season brings extra costs, such as feed, replanting, higher electricity bills for more irrigation, repairs and transport. Income may also arrive later than expected, or be less than hoped for.
A cash buffer means you won't be forced into expensive quick fixes that still hurt next season.
The Department of Agriculture is encouraging farmers to hold on to soil moisture, avoid planting more land than necessary, choose cultivars that cope with heat and dry conditions, and keep livestock numbers in line with what the veld can carry.
These are money decisions too. Every hectare planted ties up cash, and every animal the veld can't support becomes a feed bill. It may make more sense to focus inputs on the lands and livestock with the best yield potential than to plant or feed everything.
Holding back on non-essential spending, delaying projects that can wait and selling equipment you don't really use can all free up cash. But some savings can actually end up costing more in the long run.
For example, cutting fertiliser across the board can lower yields, skipping maintenance can lead to expensive breakdowns, and letting experienced workers go makes it harder to bounce back later.
Before you cut anything, ask whether those cuts will make it difficult for the farm to still make money once conditions improve.
Money trouble rarely arrives suddenly or out of nowhere. There are usually early signs that a farm is under strain, and the sooner you spot them, the easier they are to fix.
Be wary if you find yourself dipping into your overdraft earlier in the season than usual, carrying supplier accounts over to the next month, or relying more on short-term credit to buy inputs. Another red flag is a repayment plan that only works if yields and prices turn out well.
These signs are easy to brush aside, because farmers care deeply about their businesses and tend to be too hopeful at first. Taking an honest look at them now can save a lot of pain later.
If your figures suggest you could struggle with repayments in a tougher season, speak to your bank before it becomes a problem.
Show them your latest financial statements, updated cash-flow budgets, existing loans and a plan for how you'll respond. Don't wait, or try to carry this alone. If you can show your bank that you saw the risk coming and have a plan, you're in a much stronger position than if you go in after you've missed a payment.
South African farmers have come through El Niño before, and many will remember that the hardest part was often not the dry summer itself, but the years spent recovering from it.
That's why the choices made in the next few weeks matter so much. A good season always comes again. The goal is to make sure your business is still in a position to make the most of it when it does.
