Shooting may boost Trump’s chances in the US presidential race, say investors

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The event, which took place at a campaign rally in US' Pennsylvania on Saturday, 13 July, 2024, saw Trump shot in the ear. Trump described the experience as a "bullet ripping through skin".

The FBI identified 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks as the gunman who was shot and killed by the US Secret Service.

In a statement, the Secret Service said that Crook "fired multiple shots toward the stage from an elevated position outside the rally".

"What’s so frightening to all of us is that if that bullet had been one inch further towards his head, this would have been an assassination," said Stephen Moore, a senior adviser to Donald Trump's campaign.

US President Joe Biden US has forcefully condemned the attack in a public address.

Markets react strongly

Before the shooting, markets responded to the possibility of a Trump presidency by driving the US dollar higher and preparing for a steeper US Treasury yield curve. Those trades could gain momentum in the coming week, stated Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager on the fixed income team at Eastspring Investments in Singapore.

Yet, amidst these market dynamics, economists anticipate the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) to maintain its current interest rate of 8.25%. The decision, expected at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting next week, reflects caution in adjusting rates with the possibility of cuts now postponed until at least September.

However, as SA awaits cues from US monetary policy, there is a possibility that rate cuts may not occur until November or early 2025.

This stance underscores the bank's strategic approach amid global economic shifts as it must navigate both internal economic conditions and external uncertainties related to global events such as the incident involving Trump.

“With the uncertainties around the elections, the shape of the new government and the chosen policy course largely cleared up, global forces will likely reassert their dominance over the rand’s course during the remainder of this year," economists at Nedbank said.

Election impact analysis

“The [US] election is likely to be a landslide.... From memory, Republican President Ronald Reagan went up 22 points in the polls after his assassination attempt [in 1981]. This probably reduces uncertainty,” said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management.

The leader of Reform UK and a friend of Donald Trump, Nigel Farage has called it a "miracle" that the former president is still alive.

Trump is currently being evaluated at a local medical facility.