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The SAARF reality of HIV/AIDS in SA
The South African Advertising Research Foundation (SAARF) says although the fertility rate has remained the same, the impact of HIV/AIDS on female survival and fecundity has increased dramatically - 38.7% of adults are HIV positive and this figure is still rising. It is projected that there will be 451 249 AIDS-related deaths in 2005, bringing the accumulated total to just over two million.
"Knowing the truth about where South Africans stand on the infection rate is an important element in the battle [against HIV/AIDS]," said SAARF CEO Paul Haupt.
The Foundation enlists the Bureau of Market Research (BMR) of Unisa to gather information for annually updating population information at national, provincial and magisterial district level. The data only covers the total adult population (16 years and older), with a few small exceptions.
Major surveys conducted by SAARF are the All Media and Products Survey (AMPS), the Radio Audience Measurement Survey (RAMS), and the Television Audience Measurement Survey (TAMS). The population projection for 2005 was recently released.
The projection is based on the four race groups in South Africa, namely Blacks, Whites, Indians, Coloureds, and is considered on four processes: Births, internal as well as external migration; Deaths and the impact of HIV/AIDS.
Births and immigration increase the stock, while deaths and emigration decrease it.
Although it is impossible to give exact statistics on these elements, results in 2005 reveal that both immigration and emigration have increased dramatically since 1990 and continue to grow. People in Africa migrate to South Africa for better economic opportunities and South Africans leave for abroad for the exact same reason. But the statistics that are most influential are those of births and deaths.
The life expectancy of Blacks is 43.2 years, Indians 68.6, Whites 70.7 and Coloureds 59 years. While Indian life expectancy is increasing, that of both Whites and Coloureds is declining.
The death rate in South Africa is driven by HIV/AIDS (half of all deaths are AIDS-related), followed by degenerative diseases, such as cancer, heart disease, diabetes, etc). It is estimated that 9 million South Africans will have died from AIDS by 2021.
This significant loss of population will affect every aspect of the economy and society, both on a micro and macro level. And the media industry is no exception. The basic fact is that if there are fewer people to watch television or read magazines/newspapers, the face of media will change.
With entire sectors of the population 'missing', there will be publications/ programmes that become superfluous, and the advertising spend along with them.
To prevent the spread of infection of HIV/AIDS, take a test and know your status. SAARF has made its contribution to the struggle - have you?
