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October retail trade growth seen at 7.6%
Growth in SA's retail trade sales at constant (2008) prices for October is expected to lose a bit of momentum to a decrease of 7.6% year on year (y/y), from a y/y growth of 8.3% in September, according to a survey of leading economists by I-Net Bridge.
Forecasts among the nine economists ranged from 2.5% to 8.5%.
Nedbank economists, Johannes Khosa, Carmen Altenkirch and Dennis Dykes said retail sales were likely to have continued to benefit from low interest rates, income growth and price discounting of some goods.
Meanwhile, Absa Capital's Gina Schoeman said kicking off the final quarter of the year, they expected a 7.6% y/y growth in retail sales.
"This is likely to be more closely watched than usual given its strong contribution to third quarter GDP.
"We are not surprised to see still-strong consumer dynamics in the economy given low interest rates and rising real income growth," the economist commented.
Standard Bank research strategists, Thabi Leoka and Shireen Darmalingam said retail sales growth was expected to remain at elevated levels following September's surprise increase of 8.3% y/y.
"Interest rates remain at historical lows, encouraging consumption, and high wages will most likely contribute to increased spending as well.
"We expect October retail sales growth to be slightly lower than September's figure, but encouraging nonetheless," they said.
The October retail trade sales data will be released by Statistics SA at 1pm on Wednesday, 7 December.
Source: I-Net Bridge
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