Retail sales volumes surprise on the upside

"A net majority of 17% of survey respondents reported higher fourth quarter sales volumes compared with the final quarter of 2010," the BER and Ernst & Young said.

According to Derek Engelbrecht, retail and consumer products sector leader at Ernst & Young, the latest index number compared favourably with last year's fourth quarter reading, suggesting that retail sales volumes for the fourth quarter of this year could be between 5% and 7% higher than 2010's festive season sales.

Results from the survey suggested that retailers in non-durable goods (food, beverages, pharmaceutical products etc), semi-durable goods (clothing and footwear, toys, CDs, etc) and durable goods (furniture, household appliances, electronic goods etc) all recorded solid volume growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2010.

Another striking feature in the survey was the escalation in the rate at which input costs and retail selling prices were increasing.

The vast majority of retailers in all retail sub-categories reported higher increases in their selling prices, on the back of rapidly rising input costs.

"While the fourth quarter 2011 price increases were broad-based, retailers in the non-durable goods trade in particular reported a substantial uptick in purchasing and selling prices, suggesting that food and non-alcoholic beverage price increases are likely to accelerate further from the 8.5% year-on-year increase recorded during September this year," Engelbrecht said.

The survey also noted that the percentage of retailers reporting that they were satisfied with prevailing business conditions improved from 48% to 56% during the fourth quarter of 2011.

"The majority of survey participants expect sales growth to remain solid during the first quarter of 2012, but the adverse economic developments in Europe in particular pose a decided risk to the outlook for South African exports, fixed investment, and employment growth, and hence also retail trading conditions, during 2012," Engelbrecht stated.