New figures released by Ovum's Global Telecoms Analyzer show that telecoms service provider revenues only grew by 2.2% year on year in 2009 - the worst growth in a decade - and evidence that the telecoms industry finally succumbed to the impact of the global economic downturn.
But the mobile sector has returned to healthy growth, sufficient to overcome the steady decline in fixed line services. Total revenues, as reported by service providers, will grow by 6% in 2010 and a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 5% by 2014.
"Globally, mobile is keeping telecoms buzzing," John Lively, chief forecaster at Ovum, said. "In 2010, China and India alone will add 329 million new mobile phone connections, equivalent to more than the combined total population of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK."
The Global Telecoms Analyzer brings together Ovum's expert forecasts of the telecoms market. It lets users search for, chart, and download forecasts for the mobile, fixed, consumer, enterprise, infrastructure and components market segments.
It shows that fixed line services will continue to decline although fibre connections for broadband services will increasingly be important for telcos. Overall, the number of fixed lines worldwide will fall from one billion in 2010, to 871 million by 2014. Fixed line services revenues will also fall from around US$350 billion (about R2450 billion) to US$283 billion (about R1981 billion) for the same period.
Meanwhile, mobile phone connections will increase from 5.3 billion in 2010 to 7.1 billion in 2014, with the emerging markets of Asia and Africa contributing much of the growth. Revenues from mobile phone services will increase by nearly US$100 billion (about R700 billion) in the three years to 2012.
"While fixed voice lines and revenues will continue declining due to mobile substitution, fixed revenues overall will benefit from the growth in broadband services (internet access, video, and VoIP), enabled by continued deployment of fibre-to-the-premises networks," Lively added.
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