US and China hold top positions in 2015 FDI Confidence Index

© James Thew – za.fotolia.com

There are no African or Middle Eastern countries ranked in the top 25 in 2015. South Africa has fallen out of the index from a position of 13 in 2014. The other African countries included in the survey are Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Sudan and Tanzania.

"Investors desperately want to put the last financial crisis in the rear view mirror, and they are setting their sights on new destinations for their capital," said Paul Laudicina, founder of the FDI Confidence Index and chairman of A.T. Kearney's Global Business Policy Council.

"While market volatility and economic uncertainties may create periodic speed bumps in our interconnected world, these findings point to reinvigorated cross-border investment. With the right strategic insight and analysis, global opportunities abound for those who know where to look," Laudicina said.

Flight to safety

The main story of the FDICI survey in 2015 is one of investor flight to safety. People are moving their capital into markets that are perceived to be more secure - like the EU and the US.

Against that, emerging markets look more difficult. African growth was substantially driven by resource investments. With lower commodity prices, investments in oil, gas and mining in emerging markets look less attractive. Resource companies have diverted their investments away from new-build and into acquiring existing operations. They have also been negatively affected by stories out of Syria, Iraq and north East Nigeria.

The EU is doing well because of the economic prospects created by quantitative easing. The increased liquidity and lower Euro value that this causes are likely to drive both manufacturing and services - as was seen in the US in the past five years. Investors therefore want greater exposure to Eurozone economies. They make up 60% of the top 25.

Attractiveness downplayed

"The relative improvement of European countries downplays the long-term attractiveness of African markets. There is ongoing investment in infrastructure, services, consumer goods and retail and generally, sectors that benefit from consumer growth and urbanisation," said Wim Plaizier, partner at A.T. Kearney in Johannesburg.

In this year's Index, 66% of companies plan to return to their pre-financial crisis levels of FDI by 2016, with Asian investors revealing the strongest commitment to restoring pre-recession levels. Nearly three-fourths of countries ranked in the top 25 are from developed economies, as investors see new opportunities as safe ground.

For the third year in a row, the US and China are ranked first and second as target countries for investment, while the UK continues its three-year rise to claim third position. The US leads all countries when it comes to investors' positive macroeconomic outlook, with 46% of those surveyed more optimistic in their outlook for the US economy than they were a year ago, and 44% expecting GDP growth of about 3.6% over the next three years. The global executives indicate that even continued gridlock in Washington is unlikely to diminish their interest in investing in the US.