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    South African inflation expectations jump in second quarter on oil price shock

    South African inflation expectations rose sharply in the second quarter of 2026, a survey showed on Tuesday, 30 June 2026 as the oil-price shock triggered by the Iran war made analysts, business people and trade unions all raise their forecasts.
    1 Jul 2026
    Source: Reuters.
    Source: Reuters.

    • The quarterly survey is commissioned by the central bank and guides its thinking on the appropriate level of interest rates.

    • The average forecast of analysts, business people and trade unions was for headline consumer inflation of 4.4% this year, up from 3.6% in the previous survey.

    • The average forecasts for 2027 and 2028 rose to 4.2% and 3.9%, respectively, also up from 3.6%. Those forecasts are important as the central bank says interest-rate changes affect the economy with a lag of about 12 to 24 months.

    • Inflation quickened to 4.5% year on year in May, the highest reading since July 2024.

    • The central bank targets inflation of 3% with a 1-percentage-point tolerance band either side of that.

    • The bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7% at its last meeting in late May, its first hike in three years.

    • Its next rate announcement is scheduled for 23 July.

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    Source: Reuters

    Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the world's largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day.

    Go to: https://www.reuters.com/
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